Page 67 - RusRPTApr21

5.2.2 Current account dynamics
According to preliminary estimates from the CBR, Russia's current account surplus in 2m21 amounted to $13.1bn (it was $6.8bn in January), down from $17.7bn in 2m20. The y/y decrease was primarily due to the trade surplus shrinking to $17.6bn from $23.6bn, which in turn owed mainly to lower oil prices.
“The key role was played by the weakening of the surplus of foreign trade in goods as a result of a decrease in the value of export supplies of hydrocarbon raw materials, as well as due to an increase in imports of goods. At the same time, the deterioration in the foreign trade balance was partially offset by a reduction in the deficit in the balance of services,” the CBR said in a statement.
Capital outflow from the private sector in 2m21 amounted to $12bn ($8bn in January), down from $14.7bn a year earlier, which is a good result given the persisting sanctions risks and increased volatility in global markets.
According to our estimates, if the oil price averages $55/bbl this year, the current account surplus in 2021 could reach $50bn, up from $32.2bn in 2020, while the CBR could need to buy about $15bn under the fiscal rule. An average oil price of $65/bbl would bring the surplus to $66.4bn and the CBR's purchases to $32.3bn.
67 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com