Page 85 - RusRPTJul22

5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
Lithuania banned the transit of Russian goods from Russia to its enclave in Kaliningrad. According to preliminary estimates by the authorities of the Kaliningrad region, approximately 40-50% of transit cargoes were banned. This includes building materials, cement, metals, a number of other goods important for construction and production, finished products from Kaliningrad, Alikhanov specified. There will be no shortage of consumer goods, the Kaliningrad authorities assure. According to Alikhanov, the ban does not yet apply to oil products: the transit of gasoline and diesel is allowed until December.
Indeed, there should be no interruptions in food and clothing, because they are mainly transported by road, “but what will happen to the construction site, to metal, that is, to everything related to industry and production, is still unknown,” says the regional logistics expert Konstantin Semenov. Almost 80% of metal and metal structures were delivered by rail to the Kaliningrad region, said Oleg Chernov, founder of the BMK group of companies, CEO of the Investment Metallurgical Union. He believes that now not only the time of delivery by ferry can increase - by 2-3 months, but also the price - by at least 10-20%.
Some experts fear that the list of goods whose transit is prohibited may be wider than the authorities say. It is possible that restrictions will affect the supply of caviar, alcohol, fertilizers, timber, glass containers, says Ivan Timofeev, director of the Russian Council on International Affairs. “The cement and chemical industry, dyes, paints, solvents, plasticizers will suffer,” as well as “both furniture makers and enterprises that process wood and timber,” adds Dmitry Chemakin, former vice president of the Kaliningrad Chamber of Commerce and Industry. According to his estimates, the volume of deliveries to the region may fall four times.
Ukraine has established two grain export channels. Faced with the Russian naval blockade, Ukraine has established grain export channels through Poland and Romania, and also are negotiating with the Baltic states, stated Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Dmytro Senik. Through Poland, Ukrainian grain is exported by rail, but due to the difference in track width at the border, it is transported to other warehouses that lack critical infrastructure. Through Romania, Ukraine first transports grain by rail to Danube ports, then transports it on barges, and then it goes to the port of Constanta, which is expensive and time-consuming. “These corridors are not ideal, as they lead to unavoidable logistical delays, but we are doing everything possible to develop these paths now," Senik explained.
85 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com