Page 91 - RusRPTJul22

The outlook for Russian budget revenue has become harder to forecast. This is due to the sharp increase in dependence on oil and the uncertain outlook for Russian oil prices in the context of further sanctions and the faltering global economy. Spending could also adjust upwards again depending on how long the war in Ukraine continues. The HSE Development Center calculates that
if spending in May-December follows the pattern of April, the full-year deficit
will reach RUB3.85 trillion, or 2.7% of GDP. While this appears to be a fairly
modest deficit, financial sanctions mean the Finance Ministry is likely to have
to draw down reserves or cover the deficit via the National Welfare Fund.
91 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com