Page 12 - TURKRptJul22

The Turkish central bank’s net FX position stood at minus $63bn as of June 29 (Chart by @e507).
● Eurobond auctions: Nothing since March.
● NPLs, bailouts and debt restructuring queues build up.
● Snap polls: Anyone expecting Erdogan to vanish quietly should probably think again. He has three options:
- He can delay the elections (a war, perhaps even the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, is the legal option for a delay).
- He can go for a harder dictatorship, just as Alexander Lukashenko did in Belarus.
- Or, Erdogan can hand over the presidency (though losing its protection would spell big trouble for both him and his family across the globe).
Erdogan will try any chance he gets. The risk of blood on the streets remains significant.
Political assassinations, terror attacks, some other bloody moves (as seen in the June-November 2015 period), closure of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Peoples’ Party (HDP) (the HDP has reserve parties, this move will not make sense), the seizure of the Istanbul Municipality, the jailing/banning from politics of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu – these are among expectations for the period ahead.
The ultimate end: A new version of the ruling AKP, working under an IMF programme, is the likeliest potential major change you might see on the road ahead.
12 TURKEY Country Report July 2022 www.intellinews.com