Page 39 - bneMag Oct23

bne October 2023 Central Europe I 39
down-to-earth, we are not Brussels homosexuals".
On Russia, Fico has also often criticised sanctions on Moscow and called for “peace now”, even though that is likely to reward Putin’s aggression. He could join with Orban to oppose further punitive measures against Moscow.
Fico has also been a critic of Ukraine, expressed scepticism of its Nato ambitions, and he has threatened to cut off military aid to Kyiv – though this is largely empty rhetoric as Bratislava has already emptied its military depots of old Soviet materiel. He said, “People in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine.”
If he becomes premier he is, however, unlikely to stop Slovak arms companies from making a good business selling arms that end up in the hands of Ukraine’s troops. “He will not stop his business backers from making money by supplying Ukraine,” says Milan Nic, senior fellow at the German Council of Foreign Relations (DGAP).
In Brussels, Fico could also be an
ally in the war Orban and Kaczynski are fighting against the European Commission. This could make it much
more much difficult for the European Union to move towards majority voting and to reach deals by the end of the year on an increase to the bloc’s budget, a new agreement on rules governing
previous governments Fico has appointed diplomats as his foreign minister and left most of his inflammatory comments for domestic audiences. It is even possible that Smer would give Hlas the foreign
“Fico also has good reasons not to pick a fight with Brussels, which may restrain any
“Orbanisation” of Slovakia”
member-state budgets, a decision on beginning accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and the formal implementation of a new system for handling asylum seekers and migrants.
Nevertheless, analysts bne IntelliNews talked to in Bratislava last month suggested that Orban should hold the champagne for now. To achieve
a majority, Fico will have to form a coalition with the more moderate centre-left Hlas party of his former colleague Robert Pellegrini, who will want to restrain any radical shift in Slovakia’s foreign policy.
Moreover, Fico has little interest in foreign policy and is unlikely to deliberately choose to antagonise the Commission,
as Orban often appears to. In his three
ministry, with former diplomat and Hlas MP Peter Kmec seen as a strong potential candidate.
Fico also has good reasons not to pick a fight with Brussels, which may restrain any “Orbanisation” of Slovakia through interference in the country’s police, pros- ecution service and judiciary or attacks on independent media and NGOs.
Slovakia’s economy is forecast to grow just 1% this year by the EBRD and the current technocrat government predicts a budget deficit of close to 7% of GDP, which would be the largest in the
EU. If Slovakia were to have EU funds suspended like Hungary or Poland, this would not just hurt economic sentiment but it could also create a big hole in the government’s budget.
Viktor Orban (left) congratulated Robert Fico (right) for his bigger than expected election victory on September 30. / Viktor Orban / X
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