Page 63 - bneMag Oct23

bne October 2023
Opinion 63
Time for Europe to get tough on Azerbaijan
bne IntelIiNews
"By launching a military offensive in Nagorno Karabakh, President Aliyev forfeited the trust of
Europeans. Azerbaijan’s status as a transport hub cannot be a reason for the EU to go soft on Baku,” Thomas de Waal, a veteran scholar of the Caucasus, concludes in a note for think tank Carnegie Europe on September 26.
The events unfolding in Karabakh are rapidly turning into
a humanitarian crisis with tens of thousands of refugees making their way out of the enclave, fearing for their lives. An increasing number of unverified reports of atrocities are emerging on Armenian social media.
At least 200 people have been wounded and there are reports of dozens killed in the shelling that was part of the Azerbaijani so-called anti-terrorist operation that began on September 19.
The attack has ignited a heated debate about the need for a profound recalibration of Europe's policy towards Azerbaijan, observes de Waal. “While the immediate cause of concern revolves around the Karabakh conflict, the implications extend far beyond this territorial dispute,” he adds.
Baku’s unprovoked attack on Karabakh, known as Artsakh by the ethnic-Armenian locals, has crossed a red line established by both the European Union and the United States.
“The consequences are cataclysmic. The eventual casualties will run into the hundreds. Fearful for their future, thousands of Karabakh Armenians are now making a mass tragic exodus from their homeland to Armenia,” says de Waal.
“Many in Brussels and Washington feel shocked and betrayed by Azerbaijan’s use of force. Up until the last minute, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was reportedly assuring high-level interlocutors – including European Council President Charles Michel and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken – that he would not launch a military operation,” he notes.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, in raising the issue of the conflict while still at the United Nations in New
Tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing Karabakh in fear for their lives after Azerbaijan retook control of the enclave by force. / bne IntelliNews
York during its General Assembly week, didn’t minced her words, saying: "Baku broke its repeated assurances to refrain from the use of force, causing tremendous suffering to a population already in dire straits."
There was no need for the attack, argues de Waal. “An egregious aspect of this is that Azerbaijan was getting pretty much everything it wanted at the negotiating table.”
After years of deadlock and many equivocations, the Karabakh Armenians had already agreed to engage in talks with Baku, signalling a willingness to strike a deal on integration into Azerbaijan. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had even acknowledged Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, including Karabakh, aligning with international norms. A compromise deal was already half-done.
Now the status quo cannot persist, as the human rights dimension takes centre-stage. Azerbaijan says it now has full control over the region, insisting that the remaining Armenians have nothing to fear. Yet, the complexities of ethnic conflicts paint a different picture, with reports of alleged abuses by Azerbaijani soldiers already surfacing on Armenian social media.
Baku's refusal to allow international monitoring missions into the region has only fuelled concerns. Human rights groups, for instance, are attempting to document multiple alleged atrocities carried out by Azeri soldiers on Armenian soldiers and civilians accused of taking part in the 44-day Second Nagorno-Karabakh War that took place in late 2020.
“If atrocities are confirmed in Baku’s war of choice or remaining Karabakhis suffer abuse, there should be calls for prosecution of the abusers concerned, along with cases in the European Court of Human Rights,” says de Waal.
The EU has yet to respond in any meaningful way to the situation, announcing on September 26 that it was earmarking a mere €5mn for humanitarian aid to deal with the crisis. Beyond the immediate consequences, the attack has probably brought Baku closer to Moscow at a time when Europe was keen
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