Page 114 - RusRPTSept22

Russia's gas exports are practically completely dependent on the European market. The only export pipeline to the east, named the Power of Siberia, is not yet in full use.
“When deliveries of Siberian power reach the planned capacity of 38bcm, China's share in Russian gas exports may rise to close to 20% of exports. China's share can only increase in the next few years if exports to Europe shrink accordingly,” says BOFIT. “According to preliminary plans, the new export pipeline, Power of Siberia 2, will be completed in 2030 at the earliest. Even after the new pipeline is completed, exports to China could be at most half of what Russia exported to Europe before the war.”
Gas export cuts and restrictions implemented by Gazprom have led to an unprecedented rise in the price of gas in EU countries. So far, the increase in the export price has compensated for the losses incurred by Gazprom due to the reduction in export volumes.
In July Russia’s oil output climbed back to near pre-war levels, averaging almost 10.8mn barrels per day, only marginally down from the 11mn pumped in January immediately prior to the invasion of Ukraine. Based on industry estimates, oil production is slightly higher so far this month.
July marked the third consecutive month of oil production recovery, with output up significantly from this year’s low point of 10mn barrels set in April, when European buyers started shunning Russia and Moscow scrambled to find new buyers.
Russian oil production fell less than 3% compared to pre-war levels in July. The International Energy Agency noted in its August report that Russian oil production was 310,000 barrels a day lower than pre-war levels, while total oil exports were down 580,000 barrels a day.
The agency cites Russia’s rerouting of oil to India, China, and Turkey as a way to compensate for the lower exports to Europe, the U.S., Japan and Korea. Additionally, “seasonally higher Russian domestic demand has mitigated upstream losses,” reads the report.
Russian oil exports contracted by 115,000 barrels daily to 7.4mn barrels per day in July 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its August report.
Russia’s revenues from oil export also lost $2bn and declined to $19bn amid smaller deliveries and lower oil prices, IEA experts said.
Russian oil exports to the US, EU, UK, Japan and the Republic of Korea tumbled by 2.2mn barrels per day from the start of the special military
114 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com