Page 118 - RusRPTSept22

Bloomberg. In particular, last week, 11 million barrels of crude oil and oil products, including diesel fuel were exported from US ports. This is the highest figure since February 1991. Growth in US energy exports is primarily due to an increase in diesel fuel supply (+20%). The volume of crude oil sales abroad has exceeded 4 million barrels per day. This happened for the first time since the end of 2015, when the United States lifted a ten-year export ban.
Russian oil seeks a new market as EU’s December oil ban to create a 2.3mbpd surplus in 2023. Russia's oil production was still growing slightly at the beginning of the year, but after Russia's attack on Ukraine, several traditional customers reduced their crude oil purchases from Russia, the Bank of Finland institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) reports in its weekly update.
“The decrease in export demand led to a reduction in oil production in April. Since then, production numbers have not been published. But according to international organisations, during the summer Russia's oil production has recovered close to the pre-war level,” BOFIT said.
According to the international energy organisation IEA, Russia's crude oil production averaged 10.5mn barrels in 2021. barrels per day (mbpd). 4.7 mbpd of production was exported as crude oil and 2.8 mbpd as various oil products.
EU countries have been the largest export market for both crude oil and oil products. According to the IEA, Russia's oil exports to EU countries, Great Britain, the USA, Japan and Korea have shrunk by around 2.2 mbpd since the outbreak of the war. About two-thirds of that (1.5 mbpd) has found new buyers, mainly in India, China and Turkey.
In total, Russia's oil exports have shrunk by around 0.6 mbpd in the beginning of the year. CREA's analysis based on tanker traffic also shows that Russian oil exports have clearly shrunk since the beginning of the year.
The IEA estimates that after the import bans imposed by the EU come into effect at the beginning of next year, approximately 1.3 mbpd of crude oil and 1 mbpd of oil products will have to be sold to new markets.
“Due to logistical challenges, this entire amount cannot be rerouted. That is why the IEA estimates that Russian oil production will clearly decrease next year,” BOFIT said. “The Organization of the Oil Producing Countries (OPEC) is much more cautious in its estimates and predicts that Russian oil production will grow by 1% this year and will shrink by only about 3% next year. However, the organisation points out that these estimates contain considerable uncertainties.”
About 80% of Russia's oil exports are transported by sea. Therefore, the oil
118 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com