Page 141 - RusRPTSept22

Lease rates went down lately. We see that Globaltrans remains cash generative at these levels. Given some stabilisation in freight volumes, our focus is shifting to lease rates and the levels, where rate could stabilise. For now, we assume that rates will further go down, however if they stabilise it may imply upside to our FY forecasts.
● Ships
Russia's Association of Commercial Seaports (ASOP) published statistics on cargo turnover at Russian ports in January-July 2022. There was less data than usual - there was not a breakdown by import/export destination or a detailed breakdown by cargo type.
> In July, total throughput at Russian seaports grew y/y for the first time since February. It was up 1.5% y/y after decreasing by 3.0% in June and 0.4% in May. As a result, volumes in 7m22 were down only 0.2% y/y (they were down 0.5% y/y in 6m22).
> The bulk cargo data was very positive. Throughput grew 7.0% y/y in July after a 5.1% decrease in June. We think the spike in throughput was probably attributable to the launch of Belarusian fertiliser transit through Russian ports and the EU's increased imports of Russian coal ahead of the ban that took effect August 1. Hence, we think the improvement in the y/y dynamics was a one-off and expect to see the decline resume in August.
> The decline in liquid cargo throughput accelerated to 3.5% y/y in July after slowing for three consecutive months (from 11.5% in April to 1.2% in June). We assume that sanctions and bans were the main reasons for this.
Throughput at Far East and Azov/Black sea ports was up 5.0% and 5.5% y/y in July, while throughput at Arctic and Baltic sea ports was down 4.8% and 3.0% y/y. This reflected the ongoing shift in trade flows away from "unfriendly" countries toward other trade partners.
The import of containers through the Commercial Port of Vladivostok (part of the Fesco group) has increased by 1.5 times in the three months to mid August, the port press office told TASS Tuesday, adding that Asian companies have replaced those who left the Russian market.
141 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com