Page 20 - RusRPTSept22

The “yuanization” of the Russian economy already began several years ago after the CBR started dumping dollars from its international reserves and replaced it with the yuan. Russia currently holds 13.1% of its $630bn reserves in yuan, more than any other country.
The yuan became the third most traded currency in terms of volume of foreign exchange trading on the Moscow Exchange in July and will soon take second place, The Bell reported on August 8.
Cut off from the international financial system, Russian businesses have been swapping to the unsanctioned yuan and other currencies in their effort to ditch the dollar. Russian banks too that have accumulated significant reserves of dollars and euros are in the process of dumping them, as they are unable to spend them afraid of sanctions freezing these assets.
As Russia’s biggest single trade partner, the yuan holds pride of place in Russia’s foreign exchange markets. The volume of yuan traded in July was up 8pp to reach circa 20%, or RUB890bn ($14.6bn), Kommersant reports. At the start of this year the yuan trading volumes accounted for a mere 0.5% of the Exchange’s turnover.
The yuan trading has been overtaking the volume of euro trading and on occasion in July overtook it in terms of volume of trading.
The shares of other exotic currency trading are far smaller. The Hong Kong dollar and the “friendly” Kazakh tenge are relatively popular, but the volumes traded are two orders of magnitude smaller: traded volumes in July were RUB4.8bn and RUB4bn respectively. The volumes of two more of Russia’s key trade partners, the Turkish lira or the Belarusian ruble, see even smaller volumes: RUB2.6bn and RUB1bn respectively.
“The growing popularity of the yuan is a consequence of the rapid decline in the role of the now "toxic" dollar and euro in all aspects of Russia's economic activity,” The Bell comments. “Part of this trend is the de-dollarization policy of the Central Bank, as well as banks and brokers that have introduced commissions for foreign currency accounts.” Another factor driving the trade is imports have started to recover after coming to an almost standstill in March after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to Chinese data, in the first half of the year trade with Russia grew by 29% y/y to $97.7bn.
China remains top dog as Russia’s biggest trade partner and is on
course to maintain the $100bn trade turnover of recent years, but aspires to double their mutual trade to $200bn in the coming years. In 2021, trade between
the two countries totalled $174bn, up 36% on the year before and if trade volumes maintain the same pace set in the first half of this year, the goal of reaching $200bn of mutual trade should be achieved.
The importance of the yuan is expected to only include due to a variety of factors including: the arrival of Chinese companies (especially state-owned) on the Russian market looking to buy cheap assets; the resumption of investment imports, the first signs of which are already seen by the Central Bank; overall growth in trade with China, which by the end of the year may reach
20 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com