Page 57 - RusRPTSept22

Inflation in Russia at the end of the year, according to Belousov, will be at the level of 12-13% (comparable to the inflation rate in Western countries, the Deputy Prime Minister stressed). The forecast of the Ministry of Economics includes 13.4%, the Central Bank - 12-15%.
The decline in consumption in Russia in 2022 will be 4.2%, in 2023 consumption will grow by 2.5-3%, the Deputy Prime Minister believes. According to his estimates, “we have already passed the peak of the decline in consumer demand” and “have entered the growth trajectory”. The government fixes a steady trend towards the revival of domestic demand after the reduction of the key rate, the vice-premier noted.
In investments, Belousov expects a "moderate decline" - about 2% this year and 1% next. The recession will peak in the fourth quarter and early 2023. According to him, the worst fears (an investment decline of 20%) have not been confirmed, but a “complex and ambiguous picture” remains in investments, therefore “support for investments is a central issue.” The most problematic moment, according to Belousov, is the situation with exports: “thanks to the sanctions efforts, we have lost the markets of Europe.” Deliveries of non-commodity non-energy exports decreased by more than 13%, at the end of the year the reduction will be about 17%.
“Imports are now approximately at the level of 65–70% of the previous year, that is, at the peak, we had a drop in imports by about half. Now the drop in imports is one-third.” Belousov estimated the decline in industry at 4.5%. But this, according to him, is a very average number, because some industries were practically not affected, while in others (automotive industry, mechanical engineering, chemistry), the decline ranged from 10% to 50% or more. These industries create risks of increasing unemployment, a maximum of 200-300 thousand people can be reduced, the Deputy Prime Minister believes.
The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
57 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com