Page 94 - RusRPTSept22

7.1 FX issues
Labour migrants abroad remit nearly $6.5bn to Ukraine over six months.
Data from the National Bank of Ukraine shows that in total, Ukrainian migrants working outside the country sent approximately $6.46bn back home, and remittances are expected to increase in the second half of 2022.
In total, the NBU believes remittances in 2022 will amount to $12.6bn. Economists warn, however, that capital outflows from the country as a result of the full-scale Russian invasion still outpace remittances.
The volume of private transfers amounted to $1.23 billion in June. This is 1.2% more year-over-year.
Experts believe the total annual amount of money transfers will stand at $13-14 billion. The National Bank of Ukraine gives a more conservative forecast of $12.6 billion.
The cost of Ukraine also emphasised that the rapid increase in the number of forced migrants across the border has led to significant currency outflows from the country.
At the same time, remittances from labour migrants to Ukraine remain stable and ensure there is a continued flow of foreign currency into Ukraine.
Still, economists stress that the income from labour migrants, even added to the total amount of international aid, is not enough to compensate for the outflow of foreign currency from the country.
Meanwhile, Ukraine should not expect a significant increase in transfers, as in 2021, since the countries to which the migrants have fled are now prone to accelerating inflation, and there is also a general cooling of the economies of these countries.
As reported earlier, the volume of money transfers to Ukraine from abroad in the first five months of 2022 exceeded the level in the pandemic year of 2020.
8.0 Financial & capital markets 8.1 Bank sector overview
The CBR released banking statistics data for July, that reflected stronger retail loans and weaker retail deposits. The loan side continued to show
94 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com