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fears harboured by the Russian nationalists that the Kremlin will make a deal behind their backs — this is the least likely of all scenarios. A deal whereby Russia keeps any Ukrainian territory at all is a political impossibility for any Ukrainian government. Even if Western support dries up to a trickle, Zelenskiy will be forced to fight on because that’s what the majority of Ukrainians insists on; that’s why he stood and fought before much of the aid arrived. And even if Zelenskiy, or some successor, weakens and does a deal, it will not stand for long. The Finns, defeated by the Soviets in the Winter War of 1939-1940, came back with the Nazi invading force in 1941, retook the lost territory and only stopped some 20 miles from the centre of Leningrad.
4. Russian victory: Perhaps counterintuitively, it would actually end the conflict: It would mean either the inclusion of the entire eastern and southern Ukraine in Russia or the installation of a puppet government in Kyiv — in other words, the subjugation or disappearance of Ukraine as an independent actor. Of course, Western sanctions pressure on Russia would persist, and Russia would have Ukrainian guerrilla action to contend with, but the Soviet Union has previously succeeded in suppressing it and making Ukraine, even its Western part, relatively docile. Given the events of the last few months, however, this scenario is highly unlikely, and in the short term simply impossible. The Russian military doesn’t have what it takes to defeat Ukrainians on the battlefield — at least not now. It has lost the initiative and, en masse, it never had the necessary motivation. It needs to rearm, restaff and retrain, all extremely difficult tasks during an ongoing conflict. The chance at shock and awe was wasted back in February and early March, reality has set in, and, after decades of corruption and systemic rot, it’s not a pretty reality for the Russian army.
5. West defeats Russia: Some Western policy experts have advocated for it without saying what it would require. It’s not prudent to say the quiet part out loud, but a strategic defeat would mean an occupation, de-Putinization and denazification of Russia — the fate of Germany and Japan after World War II. It can only be achieved if NATO gets drawn into a conventional conflict and decisively defeats the Russian military, while nuclear weapons somehow remain unused. It’s not impossible despite Putin’s nuclear threats, designed to avoid this specific scenario. The Russian leadership is not necessarily crazy enough to let the world go down in flames to prevent a decisive defeat. But no Western political leader, certainly not Joe Biden, appears to have the appetite for extreme risk required to put NATO boots on the ground and invade Russia. Indeed, there appears to be appetite for ending the war by any other means just to avoid having to make this decision.
“Barring a divine intervention, there appears to be no realistic way to end the conflict soon. And this means it will drag out until divine intervention is no longer the only solution. As it drags out, more incidents like the Polish one will threaten to upend all the wargaming and editorializing. And Ukrainians and Russians will keep dying by the thousands,” Bershidsky concludes.
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17 RUSSIA Country Report December 2022 www.intellinews.com