Page 38 - RusRPTDec22

Under this scenario, inflation will reach the 4% target by the end of 2023 with looser monetary policy.
The “global crisis” scenario, on the other hand, assumes that an increasingly fragmented global economy will lead to a recession on the scale of the 2008 financial crisis. It also assumes that increasing geopolitical tensions will result in new sanctions against the Russian economy. This will contribute to declining Russian GDP in 2023 and 2024, with a 1% increase possible only in 2025.
Just a few days earlier, on October 28, the CBR Board of Directors elected to maintain the key rate at 7.5%. This is the first time since the beginning of the war that the rate has been left unchanged. The Bank explained that it expects partial mobilization to deter consumer demand and inflation in the next few months. The CBR will hold its next key rate review meeting on December 16.
The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
38 RUSSIA Country Report December 2022 www.intellinews.com