Page 6 - RusRPTDec22

1.0 Executive summary
“The world is now at a historic crossroads, with the most dangerous and important decade since World War II looming,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the plenary session of the Valdai International Discussion Club on October 27. He is not wrong, but its dangerous because of his doing.
"We have arrived at a historic juncture. Perhaps, the most dangerous, unpredictable and, at the same time, the most important decade since the end of World War II lies ahead," he emphasised.
The war in Ukraine drags on with the frontline stabilising and now major offensives expected for the meantime. Russia intensified its attack on Ukraine’s power infrastructure that started in October as winter looms. Russia is also trying to secure its hold on the Donbas, but progress is very slow.
Notably in November there were growing calls for a start to be made on peace talks as it appears both sides are starting to realise that the war is probably unwinnable on the battlefield and that some sort of compromise will be needed. However, with Ukraine still backing in the euphoria of retaking Kherson from Russia there is no possibility for those talks now.
Russia’s economy will only fall by 3-3.5% this year despite the dire predictions at the start of the year. Earlier in November, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said that the GDP contraction would amount to 2.8–3% in 2022 and no more than 1% in 2023.
Russia’s economy has now officially gone into recession. Preliminary figures from the economic development ministry show Russian GDP contracted by 5% y/y in September, a slightly higher pace of decline than the 4% recorded for July and August. For the January-September period, the ministry estimates GDP shrank by 2% y/y. Russian GDP was still growing briskly in January and February prior to the invasion of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation caused a lot of anxiety in September and somewhere between 300,000 and a million Russian men left the country, but after the draft ended that anxiety faded away again. In general life in Russia goes on as normal with the majority of the people believing the Kremlin’s propaganda. There is very little signs of dissent or protest and as the economy is holding up well most Russian see the war as something happening “down there” and having little impact on their daily lives. Putin’s personal popularity remains high, above 80% as he is milking the surge in nationalism.
The parallel import mechanisms are functioning now so that many of the products that disappeared in the first months of the war are back on the
6 RUSSIA Country Report December 2022 www.intellinews.com