Page 93 - RusRPTDec22

8.3 Stock market
8.3.1 Equity market dynamics
Russian stock market indicators plummeted from 2025 year start, according to 2025 financial market development guidelines posted by the Central Bank.
"The Russian stock market capitalization totaled RUB33.7 trillion ($32.6 bln) as of the end of nine months in 2022, having contracted by 46.2% from the year start," the regulator said.
"The bond market dynamics was more moderate - bonds floated on the Russian market as of early October 2022 dropped by 1.2% to RUB33.1 trillion ($32 bln)," the Bank of Russia said.
The Poland missile incident provokes market turbulence. On November 16, shares in Asian markets fell, and the dollar rose after a rocket fell on Polish territory, AR writes.
A similar situation occurred on the Russian stock exchange. MSCI's Asia-Pacific share index fell 1% on concerns about a potential increase in geopolitical tensions. The Mossbank index fell sharply amid reports of a missile explosion in Poland. The decline in the Russian market began after Poland reported the fall of missiles on its territory. Notable stocks that fell: Sberbank by 4.81%, Gazprom by 4.29%, LUKOIL by 3.34%, NOVATEK by 4.36%, and Yandex by 5.69%. However, Russian prices went up after it became known that US President Joe Biden informed NATO and their G7 partners that yesterday's explosion in Poland resulted from Ukrainian air defence.
8.3.2 Dividends dynamics
● Oil & gas
Lukoil will likely pay Rb1,080/sh to Rb1,350/sh over the next 12 months, from the final ’21 dividend through the interim and final ‘22e dividends. This implies a very significant 12MF DY of 23%-29%.
§ Lukoil’s BoD has recommended a Rb537/sh final ’21 dividend...
§ ...and a Rb256/sh interim ‘22e dividend
§ Div. policy to be softened in ’22 on loss of full access to financial markets
§ We already assumed 75% of FCF for both ’21 and ’22, so not surprising
§ Question: How much will ‘22e payouts be lowered vs. 100% of FCF policy?
o 50% FCF payout = final DPS of Rb290/sh, ‘saves’ $5.5bn of cash
o 75% FCF payout = final DPS of Rb560/sh, saves $2.7bn for other needs
93 RUSSIA Country Report December 2022 www.intellinews.com