Page 42 - UKRRptApr24

Under a new duty-free trade project with the EU, Ukraine risks losing more than €330M. The Council of the EU has updated the draft agreement that extends duty-free trade with Ukraine. In particular, the demands of Poland and France, supported by Italy, Austria, and Hungary, have been considered, and the base period, which will be considered when determining the volume of supplied Ukrainian agricultural products, has been updated. It is suggested that we focus on 2022 and 2023 and the second half of 2021. According to EC estimates, Ukraine will lose €86B if the second half of 2021 is also used in the basis of calculations. The restrictions, which will be based on import estimates for half of 2021 and the full years of 2022 and 2023, were estimated to generate €331M in losses for the Ukrainian budget. Of course, Ukraine opposed these modifications, which were supported by several EU states, advocating for the opportunity to independently earn money from selling its agricultural products. Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, the Baltic states, and Luxembourg oppose the amendments.
Ukraine and Poland could not agree on unblocking the border at the end of March; more time is needed. Minister of Agrarian Policy Mykola Solskyi commented on the meeting results in the tripartite format, Ukraine-Poland-EU. Negotiations on the issues of unblocking the border and finding common positions to resolve the crisis lasted more than six hours. "We have already discussed options for solutions, which will be announced soon. At the same time, according to Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olga Stefanishyna, the Polish government is still deciding whether to make concessions in order to unblock the border. "This is a complex internal situation related to the elections. Today, it is unclear how to end this crisis," she said. In turn, Head of the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, Jan Grabiec, noted that “even in Poland, they do not have much hope that the Ukrainian-Polish intergovernmental consultations will bring any significant result." Meanwhile, the parliamentarians of the Baltic countries, Poland and Ukraine, plan to meet soon in Warsaw to resolve the issue of blocking the export of Ukrainian agricultural products.
Ukraine increased its imports from China. What other countries supplied us with goods in January? In January 2024, the share of Chinese goods in the structure of Ukrainian imports increased to 21.7%. The value of these imports is more than $1.1B; in 2023, this figure was 16%. Among the most imported goods are drones, which accounted for 2% of total imports in January (last year - 0.7%).
Further growth of China's share in the importation of this type of product is noted, which last year was 86%, and in January 2024, it reached 97%.
In general, in January Ukraine primarily bought: oil and oil products - 9%; passenger cars - 8%; plastics - 4.8%; cast iron and steel - 3.6%; medicines - 3.5%; telephones - 2.2%; optics - 2.1%; drones - 2%; fruits and nuts - 1.9%; fish - 1.9%.
It is reported that the share of imports from the EU in January 2024 fell below 50% (to 47.8%). Ukraine imported the most from China, Poland, Germany, Turkey, the US, Greece, Italy, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and France.
The volume of Chinese-Ukrainian trade in January-February grew by 46.6% y/y to $1.5bn, the General Administration of Customs of China reported.
As follows from the published statistics, exports of goods from China to Ukraine over two months reached $550.42mn (an increase of 69.6% compared to the same period last year), while imports increased by 36% ($954.06mn). Compared to January-February 2023, the positive balance of the Ukrainian side increased by 7.3%, to $403.64mn.
42 UKRAINE Country Report April 2024 www.intellinews.com