Page 7 - UKRRptApr24

being worked out to renew the unfettered access to the EU, but “emergency brake” restrictions are going to be reintroduced on key products like eggs, chicken and honey.
The spat has highlighted the limit of the EU support for Ukraine as it is proposing to limit Ukraine’s ability to trade with the EU and desperately needed money, in an effort to protect member state’s home markets. At the time of writing this dispute, which started last April when Poland banned all agricultural imports, has still not been resolved.
Meanwhile the economy is growing strongly. Ukraine's GDP grew by 5.3% in 2023 and the IMF has updated its macro forecast for Ukraine for 2024 to UAH7.75 trillion from the UAH7.64 trillion predicted in December last year’ However, 2025’s forecast remains almost unchanged at UAH8.86 trillion. The economy's growth rate will decrease by 3-4% in 2024 says the IMF, which is worried about the impact of the current Russian barrage of missiles.
Much depends on what happens in the war. In March Zelenskiy was predicting that Russia might launch a major counteroffensive in May-June. As bne IntelliNews has previously reported, 2024 will be a very tough year for Ukraine.
2.0 Politics
2.1 Poland cuts off Ukraine agro trade, but not Russia’s
Mykhailo Tkach, a journalist of Ukrainska Pravda media, went to the Polish border and conducted an investigation to find out the scale of trade turnover between Poland and Belarus. It turned out that while Ukrainian agricultural products are blocked at the border, Poland pays hundreds of millions to companies from Russia and Belarus for seeds, oil and animal feed.
"Europe is flooded with Russian grain and this is causing huge problems. Almost 15% of the grain currently delivered to the EU comes from Russia." - Wojciech Staniszewski, mayor of Brzostek, Poland.
Putin uses grain prices as a weapon to destabilize the internal policy of Ukrainian allies in the EU. So far, it looks like food terrorism is working.
▪ Poland trades with Russia and Belarus, while Ukraine is banned even from transit.
Ukrainian agricultural exports to Poland fell by 40% last year. In August, amid protests, Poland banned imports of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds from Ukraine, and in September, it added rapeseed cake and meal, corn bran, wheat flour and derivatives.
Since April 2023, Ukrainian grain has been going through Poland only in transit. Despite this, protests at the border continue. There are about 6 thousand cars in line to leave Ukraine for Poland, and another 2 thousand to enter Poland
Imports of agricultural products from Russia to Poland in 2023 reached $117 and exceeded the level of 2021, i.e. the level before the full-scale war. Poland
7 UKRAINE Country Report April 2024 www.intellinews.com