Page 156 - RusRPTOct22

Government ponders Rb105bn export duty on fertilisers. Kommersant on September 13 reported that government considers introduction of Rb105bn export duty on fertilisers. We do not know the exact details yet, but assuming that duty could amount to 5-7% of export sale, the impact could be around 15% on bottomline of Phosagro. The decision is yet to be made, hence, no change to our model at the moment.
9.2.14 Mines and Minerals - other
The EU’s ban on imports of Russian coal entered into force on August 10.
The EU decision to ban Russian coal, which was made last April, included a transition period to allow EU countries to continue importing Russian coal under existing contracts, but permitted no new agreements.
The ban on Russian coal imports was adopted by the EU, UK and the US. Japan and South Korea have announced that they are also limiting the amounts of coal they import from Russia. Over a quarter of Russia’s coal exports went to EU countries in 2021, and about 20% to South Korea and Japan. China accounted for just under 25% of Russia’s coal exports.
Rosstat reports that coal production fell by 2% y/y in the January-June period.
Information taken from various sources suggest that Russian coal exports have yet to decline at all. Instead, the growth emphasis has shifted the EU to Asia.
Much of the export growth has been driven by huge discounts on the price of Russian coal. The gradual loss of Western customers has forced Russian coal
156 RUSSIA Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com