Page 19 - RusRPTOct22

economic and social support. Plus oil and gas revenues were anticipated to fall due to EU sanctions on oil that are due to kick in in December. It was also clear that gas supplies to Europe were likely to fall as a result of the economic clash between east and west.
But cut off from international markets and with international investors shunning the domestic ruble bond market due to the SWIFT sanctions that were imposed only days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, MinFin’s access to capital has been restricted. Although there is enough liquidity in the domestic banking sector as well as in the National Welfare Fund (NWF) to cover the short fall, MinFin is looking for ways to spread the load and spin out the reserves it has at its disposal for as long as possible.
The plan to tap the gas sector should produce significant extra revenues. Gazprom is waiting for an increase in the export duty to 50% from 30% if the price of export gas exceeds $300 per thousand cubic metres. The Dutch TTF spot price for gas on September 20 was $1,903/kcm. MinFin forecasts that the change in the gas export tax regime will net the budget an additional RUB578bn ($9.2bn) in 2023 and RUB1.23 trillion ($20.5bn) in three years.
Additionally, MinFin and further can raise the mineral extraction tax (MET), one of the biggest contributors to the budget, for all gas producers and withdraw to the budget funds received by companies from additional indexation of domestic gas tariffs by 3 percentage points. In this case the gas tariff will rise by 8.5% in 2023 and by 7% in 2024, reports The Bell. In this case, the budget will receive an addition RUB28bn ($466mn) in 2023, RUB100bn rubles in 2024 and RUB150bn rubles in 2025.
In addition to additional taxes on gas, more taxes on LNG are also being discussed. An export duty for LNG producers could bring the budget an additional RUB200bn a year. The main obstacle is agreements with foreign shareholders of the Yamal LNG, Novatek and Sakhalin-2 projects, which prohibit the worsening of tax regimes. But the terms of the agreements can be revised with the consent of the participants, and an excise tax has been introduced on LNG from Yamal, The Bell reports.
The export duty on oil in the last year before zeroing due to the tax manoeuvre in 2023 can be increased by one and a half times, which add another RUB240bn ($4bn). Due to the extension of the damper for gasoline adjusted for the Urals discount for 2023–2025, it is possible to receive RUB190bn rubles a year, The Bell reports.
Finally adding export duties on coal and fertilisers, more fees worth a total of RUB1.4 trillion ($23.3bn) in 2023 and RUB3.15 trillion for the three-year budget period after that.
Gazprom will pay the most to the budget from all these changes, from which RUB1.2 trillion will be withdrawn this year through a one-time increase in the severance tax, not counting interim dividends to the state of RUB600bn rubles. Gazprom earlier this year temporarily suspended dividend payments, but recently announced its first ever interim dividend and at a record level to provide an additional source of funds for the government, its largest shareholder.
19 RUSSIA Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com