Page 49 - RusRPTOct22

The CBR also provided an updated inflation forecast for this year in conjunction with the rate cut announcement. Central bank expects 12-month inflation to be in the range of 11–13% this year (12—15% in the previous forecast), 5—7% in 2023 and return to the CBR’s inflation target of 4% p.a. in 2024.
The central bank left its GDP forecast for this year unchanged (i.e. a contraction of 4–6%), but indicated that the forecast will likely improve in its October forecast update.
Inflation in Russia is declining, by the end of the year its level may reach around 12%, Putin said. "The short-sighted actions of the Western authorities have also triggered global inflation, it has already updated long-sanding highs in developed economies. By the end of July, inflation in the United States was 8.5%. We now have it at 14%, with a trend to decline, in contrast to Western economies. I believe it will be around 12% by the end of the year," he said. According to many experts, Putin continued, by the second quarter of next year, Russia will most likely reach the inflation target. "Some say 5-6%, and others say hat 4% will be reached. Let's see, in any case, the trends are positive," he said.
In September 2022, households’ inflation expectations for a year ahead edged up, returning close to the upper bound of the April–August range, as shown by InFOM’s survey. The median estimate of inflation expected in the next 12 months reached 12.5%. Short-term price expectations of companies also slightly increased, for the first time after five months of a decline. Analysts’ inflation forecasts for 2022–2024 continued to decrease. The Bank of Russia forecasts that annual inflation will equal 11–13% in 2022 and, given the monetary policy pursued, go down to 5–7% in 2023, and return to its 4% target in 2024.
49 RUSSIA Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com