Page 7 - RusRPTOct22

1.0 Executive summary
Russian politics was thrown into chaos after Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced a partial mobilisation on September 21, calling up 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine. Within a week almost the same number, 260,000, men of military age had fled the country.
This is a seriously risky move by Putin as it threatens to break his famous social contract with the people: you don’t interfere with politics; we won’t interfere with your daily lives. Putin was trying to find a balance in this equation as 300,000 men is 2% of the population, moreover, the bulk of the recruits were drawn from the poorest ethnic minority regions in the centre of the country that are completely under the control of the state. The European part of the country where most of the Slavs live were much less molested. IN this way the daily lives of the majority of the population – more than 99% in the European parts – remain the same.
What protests there were were limited to the target regions like Dagestan and those in Moscow and St Petersburg ran to around 500 people and were easily repressed by the OMON.
However, Putin is gambling, but with the front in Donbas in collapse he has shown himself unwilling to back down and will go to any lengths to obtain his goals. In this sense the talk of the possible use of nuclear weapons should be taken seriously.
Accompanied with the mobilisation was referenda in four Ukrainian regions which is highly like to end with their annexation in October. This changes the narrative in the fighting in Ukraine. Unitl now Ukrainian forces have been firing at Russian troops that are on a special military operation to protect the locals from “Nazis.” After annexation that narrative becomes Nato-backed Ukrainian forces attacking Russian sovereign territory and as such significantly increases the risks of a boarded conflict directly between Russia and Nato.
The economy on the other hand continues to do much better than expected. Russia has passed the most difficult situation in the economy, President Vladimir Putin said at a plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) on September 7. "I would like to note, we believe, our experts both in the government and the presidential administration believe that the peak, the most difficult situation [in the country’s economy] has been passed. The situation is normalizing, which is highlighted by macroeconomic indicators as well," he said. The authorities will continue efforts to defeat inflation, Putin added. "At least everything will be done for that," he noted.
7 RUSSIA Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com