Page 56 - bne IntelliNews monthly country report Russia February 2024

next year, however, suggests that the economic recovery experienced in 2023 will have run its course. It is likely that the structural limitations of further growth—labour shortages, higher interest rates, and limited infrastructure capacities—will be felt in regional finances, all while expenditures will likely remain high, at least in the first half of the year. A recent report published by the Central Bank also suggests that economic growth is slowing in the fourth quarter of 2023, and that revenues from energy exports—currently strong due to high oil prices in spite of the G7 oil price cap—are also expected to drop in the coming months. Regions can, however, also rely on budgetary and short-term treasury loans to cover their deficits.
6.1.4 Budget dynamics - National Projects
The government has still not published the updated the 12 national projects, nor the National Goals Strategy that supersedes it.
The latest announcement was a decree issued February 3, allocating responsibility for a Strategy of Socio-economic Development to 2030. This will preserve the National Projects in the period to 2024, but also build a longer-term growth strategy through to 2030. There will be five main operational centres within the government as follows, with the responsible Deputy Prime Minister in brackets:
New high-technology economy (First Deputy PM Belousov) Aggressive infrastructure development (Deputy PM Khusnullin) New Social contract (Deputy PM Golikova)
Client-oriented State (Deputy PM Grigorenko)
National Innovation System (Deputy PM Chernyshenko)
The date for delivering this strategy to the government for approval is May 14th 2021, which is not much time given that all measures have to be approved by all interested ministries and signed off by the Ministry of Finance. In principle though the government has been working on projects along these lines since July, so most of the work should have been done. It is likely that bureaucratic issues with this strategy led to Mishustin getting rid of four ministers in November. It means that those who are left should be fully committed to the program and to cooperating with each other.
Some details have been published. Few details have leaked out from the government meetings. What has been reported is:
56 RUSSIA Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com