Page 7 - bne IntelliNews monthly country report Russia February 2024

ensure social stability,” says Alexandra Prokopenko, a political economy analyst.
The military Keynesianism boost from putting Russia on a war footing paid dividends that saw industrial production and the PMIs soar. The manufacturing sector, marked by a robust 9.5% growth in October, continues to be driven by the "special military operations," which has contributed to the expansion of industries such as engineering, chemistry, and metallurgy.
Investment activity during the third quarter exceeded expectations, also driven by the war, recording an impressive 13.3% growth rate (compared to 10% from January to October).
The labour shortage caused by the draft led to all-time low unemployment that pushed up both nominal and real wages and that in turn fuelled consumption and more growth. At street level Russia appeared to be booming to most Russians.
A surge in consumer and investment demand has been instrumental in boosting wholesale trade. In October, the total consumer spending of citizens exhibited a remarkable y/y increase of 10.7% (and a 3.3% rise compared to October 2021).
In addition, the external situation rapidly improved as the Kremlin quickly found ways to almost entirely dodge sanctions. Both the oil and technology sanctions have almost completely failed. The oil price cap sanctions that were imposed round the start of 2023 have also failed with the Financial Times reporting that not a single barrel of Russian oil was sold at below the $60 cap.
7 RUSSIA Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com