Page 40 - bne magazine September 2023

40 I Southeast Europe bne September 2023
The Russia House in Belgrade; Russia's influence is most effective through media and disinformation channels. / Clare Nuttall
Ukraine war erodes Russia’s economic clout in Western Balkans
bne IntelliNews
The war in Ukraine has led to a reduction in Russia’s economic presence in Bosnia & Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia – the three Western Balkan countries where
it historically has had the greatest influence, according to a new report from Clingendael, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations.
While Russia still has economic clout in the three countries, notably as an energy exporter and the owner of crucial energy infrastructure, overall its role in their economies has been far outstripped
by the EU’s, both before and after the February 2022 invasion, says the report, titled “Little substance, considerable impact”, which looks at Russia’s goals and influence in the three countries.
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Overall, the report’s authors find, there has been only a small impact from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on its stance concerning Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia, with its fundamental approach largely unchanged.
“While the invasion has led to sharper dividing lines between Russia and the West and decreases in Russian financial and diplomatic capacities, we observe continuity in terms of Russian strategies and objectives,” says the report.
“Russia’s sources of influence in the three countries have been moderately strained, among other causes as a result of BiH and Serbia’s first steps to diversify energy sources and Western pressure to diminish their political
and security links with the Russian Federation. For the time being, this has not yet affected Moscow’s ability to act as a spoiler to the Euro-Atlantic integration of the three countries.”
Russia’s hopes of using the Balkan region as a route to supply its oil and gas to Europe were already dashed
back in 2014, when the South Stream project was abandoned. The 2022 Ukraine invasion only confirmed this, with reduced Russian gas supply, lower European demand, and EU sanctions on Russian oil imports cementing the shift.
Russia is, however, still working to maintain its energy-based economic influence in the region. In the energy sector, Russia maintains influence by