Page 59 - bne magazine September 2023

bne September 2023 Eurasia I 59
the first year of school increased from 100,000 in 2011 to 161,739 by 2022.
Turkmen authorities have done all they can to isolate the country from the rest of the world, so independently verifying the size of the population is impossible.
RFE/RL’s Turkmen Service, however,
did some random polling of towns
and villages. Each location showed a population decrease of between 20% and 40%, or more, since the year 2000.
The problem with Turkmen government figures is that they have been inaccurate so often that few believe any official Turkmen data. The World Bank stopped using the government’s economic figures after 2020 “owing to a lack of reliable data of adequate quality.”
Back to that claim about the apparent failure of the covid pandemic to arrive in Turkmenistan. The believability of the assertion that there are 7mn people in the country is further undercut by the government’s astonishing denial that the country has ever logged a covid case.
Numerous reports during the height of the pandemic indicated that Turkmen hospitals were so crowded that people were being turned away.
The bodies of those suspected of having died from the coronavirus in hospitals were wrapped in plastic and were often quickly buried without any funeral ceremony.
Many burials were performed at night and in such a way as to not leave any
signs of the unusually high numbers of new graves in the given cemetery.
Anecdotal evidence suggests tens of thousands of people in Turkmenistan did in fact perish from covid. That alone should have lowered the final census tally.
Suspiciously, the Turkmen population figure is very close to that of Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyzstan’s National Statistics Committee said at the start of 2023 that the Kyrgyz population was 7,037,590. That makes one wonder if Turkmenistan’s figure was contrived so as to make it appear that the country does not have the smallest population in Central Asia.
US pressuring Iran to end drone sales to Russia bne IntelliNews
The US is pressuring Iran to cease its sale of armed drones to Russia in exchange for easing sanctions on Tehran, sources familiar with the matter have told the Financial Times.
The US move is part of a broader, unwritten understanding between Washington
and Tehran aimed at de-escalating tensions and addressing the longstanding nuclear issue between them. For the US this would also strike a blow to Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine.
The Biden administration, led by its specific “Iran team”, has reportedly broached the topic with the clerical leadership in Tehran during ongoing indirect talks in Qatar and Oman.
These talks have occurred concurrently with negotiations on a prisoner exchange deal. As a result, Tehran transitioned four Iranian-US citizens from prison to the Espinas Palace Hotel in the north of city.
"The move of our detainees out of prison and to home detention is not linked to
any other aspect of our Iran policy," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on August 15.
He emphasised the US' strategy of "deterrence, pressure, and diplomacy"
to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to hold them accountable for human rights violations and supplying drones to Russia for use in Ukraine.
According to an unnamed Iranian official and another individual briefed on the matter, the US is concerned about Iran's provision of drones and spare parts to Russia, which are being utilised in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
While Iran has officially denied its drones' involvement in Ukraine, Tehran has reportedly urged Moscow to refrain from using them. However, the US is seeking more definitive actions in the form of incentives.
The indirect talks aim to achieve mutual de-escalatory measures. For Iran, this would involve commitments such as not enriching uranium beyond 60% purity,
enhancing cooperation with the Interna- tional Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and ensuring Americans are not targeted. In exchange, the US would potentially ease certain sanctions, especially those related to oil sales, while maintaining strictures related to human rights.
The Islamic Republic is also urging the US to persuade European allies to reduce pressures, given the economic strain from US sanctions implemented after the 2015 nuclear accord was abandoned by former US President Donald Trump.
Despite reaching a consensus on several issues, the talks facilitated through intermediaries will continue, especially concerning Russia, the Iranian official noted.
A Western diplomat expressed caution, highlighting the challenges of ensuring the entire Iranian system's compliance with any agreed-upon measures.
As part of the discussed exchange, Iran would release five US prisoners, while the US would free five Iranians.
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