Page 12 - RusRPTMar23

problem of illegal landfills but still led to higher tariffs and frustration. Service
cuts and decaying infrastructure often cause disruptions in the provision of
heat, water, and electricity. During the past week, for example, more than
100,000 residents of Ussuriysk in the Maritime Territory
remained
without
electricity. In Dagestan, residents protested against unexpected power cuts.
Even the government report acknowledged that there is a significant gap in the financing needed to modernize utility networks and that the opportunities to attract private investment are limited. Nonetheless, the government promised an overhaul and accepted modernization from 14 regions this week. However, it only plans to spend
30bn rubles ($430mn) on this in 2023 and 100bn
($1.4bn) in 2024. This is a small fragment of the estimated 4 trillion rubles
($57bn) that regions need to replace utility networks.
2.3 IMF predicts Russian economy to rebound in 2023
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released one of the most optimistic forecasts for Russia’s economic growth for 2023, predicting 0.3% for this year. The reason? Oil exports will defy sanctions, although exports will fall below the pre-war levels.
International economic institutions are now expressing more optimism than the Russian government about Russia's economy. The IMF upgraded its Russia outlook to 0.3% in 2023, up from the pervious October forecast for a 2.3% contraction.
The IMF's new outlook on the global economy is also much more positive, anticipating 2.9% growth due to "unexpectedly stable" dynamics, reports The Bell. For Russia, the IMF predicts even higher growth of 2.1% in 2024. This optimistic forecast is credited to the stability of Russia's oil exports and the redirection of trade from sanctioned to non-sanctioned countries.
The IMF's forecast is even more upbeat than the notoriously conservative Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and the cautious Ministry of Economic Development, which predict a decline of 4% and 0.8% respectively in 2023. The IMF's prediction requires a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% for the entire 2023.
Other major economies are also expected to show growth in 2023. The IMF upgraded its forecast for China from 4.4% to 5.2%, and for the US from 1% to 1.4%. Germany is worst off, teetering on the edge of recession and expected to grow by only 0.1% in 2023, while Britain has already gone over the cliff into recession and is the only leading economy expected to decline by 0.6% in 2023. The UK is being hit by multiple problems including the hangover from the pandemic and the subsequent cost-of-living crisis, but its woes have been made worse by the misguided pro-growth policies of former Prime Minister Liz Truss.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas highlighted the stability of China's post-Covid reopening and the return of growth among developing countries, including China and India, as other reasons for optimism.
12 RUSSIA Country Report March 2023 www.intellinews.com