Page 155 - RusRPTMar23

to move grain exports upward to 55-60mn metric tonnes by the end of the agricultural year, that is, by June 30, 2023," Putin said.
Russia has been having problems exporting its own grain due to restrictions on Russian shipping introduced as part of the fifth package of sanctions in April, but those restrictions were eased somewhat following the renewal of the Istanbul grain deal on November 17, that did not just allow Ukraine to export grain, but made it easier for Russia to increase exports too.
If Russia exports the full 60mn tonnes, then it would set a record for grain exports and make Russia clearly the biggest grain exporter in the world. In previous years Russia competed neck and neck with Ukraine for that title, but after the war started Ukraine’s grain export in 2022 fell by a third to 27.7mn tonnes as of February 6, according to official data.
The outlook for Russia’s harvest this year is much poorer. The grain harvest may decrease by 17% y/y in Russia in 2023 and amount to 127.6mn tonnes, ProZerno predicts, on a par with the five-year average.
Russia’s wheat harvest is expected at 80.1mn tonnes, barley at 19.5mn tonnes, corn at 15mn tonnes. The total planted area under grains will decrease by 1.3% from 47.573mn ha in 2022 to 46.96mn ha. The average grain yield will decrease by 16% y/y from 3.23 t/ha to 2.73 t/ha.
155 RUSSIA Country Report March 2023 www.intellinews.com