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Several other studies have attempted to map Russia’s trade using official partner statistics. A paper published by European economic think-tank Bruegel found that Russia’s account improved significantly in 2022 due to a combination of extraordinarily high exports and a contraction in imports.112 The authors estimate that Russia’s imports fell by $8.5 billion in 112 March 2022 compared to the previous month, or by over 40% year-on-year. This decline continued into April, with imports falling by 48% year-on-year. However, imports began to recover, particularly for imports from China, Belarus, and Turkey. The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) also found that imports initially declined, but began to recover in 2Q2022, with China, Turkey, and the CIS taking the lead.113 Another paper by Bruegel looks into the specifics of Russia’s trade flows with its key partners, with similar conclusions.114 Counterfactual analyses that extrapolate what Russia’s trade would have been had the war and related sanctions not occurred reach conclusions similar to our findings.
Semiconductors have been a particular focus and Russia has been sourcing a lot of these from non=aligned source, according to FRF.
Russia—Still Open for Business
Russian earnings from oil exports continued to rise through 2022, reaching $171 billion over January-September. This is a 35% increase over the corresponding period of the previous year, with crude oil 41% higher and petroleum products 26% higher, respectively, than in 2021. A decomposition shows that higher prices were responsible for most of the change, with crude oil volumes also playing a role, while product export volumes declined.
23 RUSSIA Country Report March 2023 www.intellinews.com