Page 47 - RusRPTMar23

In his biggest statement during his two hours at the podium, Putin announced that Russia was suspending its involvement in New START, the last remaining nuclear arms treaty with the United States. The next day, the State Duma approved the presidential proposal, followed by the upper-house Federation Council.
New START, or START-III, was signed in 2010 by then-presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama. At the time, this treaty was hailed as the centerpiece of a “reset” in trans-Atlantic relations. The deal imposed limits in the deployment of nuclear warheads and ICBMs on both sides. The treaty expired in 2021, but was immediately extended until 2026. Despite Putin’s statement, Russia will continue to respect the restrictions on its nuclear arms imposed by the treaty, according to the Foreign Ministry.
Although Putin announced that Russia is suspending its participation in New START, the agreement itself has no mechanism for either side to suspend it, said Pavel Podvig, a researcher at the UN’s Institute for Disarmament Research and part of Princeton University’s Science and Global Security program. While the U.S. will probably not accept Russia’s suspension as a legal step, there is no way to force Russia to fulfill its treaty obligations, he explained.
“There is no good news from the suspension of the treaty, but that doesn’t mean the consequences will necessarily be dramatic,” Podvig said. “The nuclear deterrent operates independently of treaties and nothing will change that. The arms control architecture will suffer, but even there, some elements will remain.”Putin also vowed that Russia would follow suit if the U.S. resumed nuclear weapons testing. Podvig believes this can be seen as a positive signal.
“[Putin] actually said that Russia would not be the first to resume testing,” he said. “Thus, since there are no signs that the U.S. will resume tests, there is hope that the moratorium on testing will continue.”4. Russia’s economy is apparently withstanding sanctions.
During his address, Putin made the point of stressing that Russia was standing up to the onslaught of Western sanctions, and Russian economic indicators only confirm this.
Putin pointed to the latest data on the contraction of Russia’s economy as evidence. Rosstat, the state statistics bureau, was originally due to publish its figures after the speech but, “for technical reasons,” the release of data about the fall in GDP in 2022 was brought forward for Feb. 20, the day before the address.
Putin said that in 2022, GDP fell 2.1%, showing that Russia’s economy was managing the emerging risks. Under last year’s sanctions, the Russian economy performed better than during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, when it fell by 3%.
However, these figures do not tell the whole story. For example, the sanctions have taken away Russia’s access to technological products. As a result, the country is simplifying its products. Car-maker AvtoVAZ is now manufacturing“simplified” Lada cars without anti-lock braking systems or airbags. Meanwhile, the slight decline in GDP was driven, in part, by increased military production and redirecting exports to Asian countries.
47 RUSSIA Country Report March 2023 www.intellinews.com