Page 84 - RusRPTMar23

Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such asIndia, China, and Turkey with no loss of volumes, albeit at the cost of accepting discounts in a subset of markets where the EU embargo has dramatically lowered demand (i.e.,shipments from Baltic and Black Sea ports). This suggests that Russia, at least initially,chose to not reduce volumes in the face of downward pressure on prices.
Russia recorded a record-high trade surplus of $316bn in 2022. According to ourdata, goods exports reached $532bn last year—an increase of 21% compared to 2021 and the highest ever. At the same time, goods imports dropped sharply to $217bn—18% lower than the previous year. These numbers are broadly consistent with the Bank of Russia’s recent releaseof data on the country’s external accounts—showing a goods and services surplus of $282bn and an overall current account balance of $227bn—as well as official comments by Russia’sFederal Customs Service.
Russia’s foreign trade surplus plummeted by around 56.5% on the year to U.S. $9 billion in January because of a lower price for exports, the central bank said on February 9.
The Ministry of Economic Development for the first time assessed the reorientation of Russian exports (in monetary terms) over the past year. Exports grew, while imports fell.
Exports in January-November 2022 increased by 23.4% compared to the same period in 2021, to $538bn, imports decreased by 12.7%, to $230bn. Foreign trade turnover, respectively, reached $768bn (+10%).
The share of “unfriendly” economies (imposed sanctions or joined them) in Russian exports decreased from 58% to 35% by the end of the year, that is, almost a quarter of exports were redirected to “friendly” ones. But cumulatively over 11 months, exports to unfriendly countries still prevailed ($350bn). Accordingly, the share of neutral and friendly countries increased to 65% by November.
The data of the Federal Customs Service (in physical terms, for the whole year) paint a somewhat different picture. The share of unfriendly countries in exports decreased by 10%, in imports - by 25% compared to 2021. Imports in physical terms decreased by 16%.
With the closure of trade and customs statistics, the analysis of Russia's foreign trade is forced to rely on "mirror" statistics of trading partners and grains of domestic data, so even such a rough structural assessment of exports by the Ministry of Economic Development is quite valuable.
The completed “turn to the East”, even taking into account the increased supplies to India (by 4.4 times, to $32.3bn) and China (by 43%, to $114.2bn),
84 RUSSIA Country Report March 2023 www.intellinews.com