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geopolitical developments and expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Potential OPEC+ cuts extending to Q3 could further increase prices, though we are not incorporating this in our forecast at this time. In the 2023/2024 Human Development Index report by the UN, the UAE emerged as the regional leader, securing a place in the top 20 globally. Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kuwait, and Oman also achieved top 70 rankings. These results highlight the efficacy of regional policies centred on education, healthcare, economic advancement, and sustainable development.
Russian oil companies are facing delays in paying for crude oil and fuel,
Reuters writes , citing eight sources familiar with the situation. It comes as banks in China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) become more cautious, fearing secondary US sanctions. Delays can last up to several months.
According to eight banking and trading sources, banks in the UAE, China and Turkey, fearing secondary US sanctions, have begun asking their clients to provide written assurances that no person or entity on the US SDN (Special Designated Nationals) list is involved in the transaction. or is not the beneficiary of the payment.
In the UAE, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) and Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB) have blocked several accounts related to trading in Russian goods, two sources said. The UAE's Mashreq Bank, Turkey's Ziraat and Vakifbank, and Chinese banks ICBC and Bank of China are still processing payments, but they are taking weeks or months to process, four of the sources said.
Mashreq Bank declined to comment. UAE banks FAB and DIB, Turkey's Ziraat and Vakifbank, China's ICBC and Bank of China did not respond to requests for comment.
The US Energy Information Administration March 12 raised its 2024 Brent crude price forecast to an average of $87/b, up $4.58 from the February estimate, saying the extension of OPEC+ production cuts and falling oil inventories are expected to tighten oil markets in the second quarter. The EIA in its Short-Term Energy Outlook said it expects global oil inventories to fall by 0.9mn b/d in Q2, after saying in February that it expects "inventories to remain relatively unchanged" this quarter. Increasing inventories when OPEC+ supply cuts are expected to expire start putting slight downward pressure on prices in 2025, EIA said. "We forecast that the Brent crude oil price will decrease from an average of $88/b in January 2025 to an average of $82/b in December 2025, averaging $87/b in 2024 and $85/b in 2025," EIA said.
127 RUSSIA Country Report April 2024 www.intellinews.com