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rate echoes the massive drop in the 1990s following the breakup of the Soviet Union. The cohort of young adults aged 25 to 30 is now about 5mn smaller than it was a decade ago. The number of births is expected to remain at the current low level at least until the end of this decade.
The mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 persons per year) has fallen throughout the past two decade, while the expected lifespan of Russians has increased (but not enough to make up for declining births). The number of deaths last year outstripped births by about 440,000. 2021 witnessed a significant rise in mortality from the Covid-19 pandemic. At that time, deaths outnumbered births by about 1 mn. As in many countries, the Russian population is also greying. Rosstat’s latest population forecast expects the pension-age share of the population to rise from 24% at present to around 27% in the 2040s.
Immigration slows population contraction
Russia’s declining population trend has mainly been offset by a net influx of people from Central Asia. Official records show net immigration last year of over 200,000 people, or about half of the natural population decline. Indeed, without significant numbers of migrants and the increase in population from occupied territories, Russia’s population would have shrunk by about 12mn people since 2000 and about 5mn over the past ten years.
Russian immigration and emigration figures are imprecise. Russian citizens who leave the country rarely inform local officials of their new domicile abroad. Similarly, persons with expired residence permits are automatically assumed to have left the country, when in fact such persons may not always leave the
16 RUSSIA Country Report April 2024 www.intellinews.com