Page 42 - RusRPTFeb23

In addition, she notes that the optimal dollar rate for the Russian economy in 2023 is 75 rubles. The key rate, according to National Rating Agency forecasts, will be 6.5-8.5%, and inflation "will average at around 6.57%, but will gradually decrease," Rozentsvet said.
The official CBR macroeconomic forecasts are here.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
The Russian domestic road construction equipment market has grown by 38% in 4Q22 and by 33% year on year in monetary terms to RUB73.4bn ($1.1bn), according to Kommersant daily citing Rosspetsmash data.
The growth in the segment is attributed to local machinery producer factories adapting to new conditions and substituting foreign components, while large customers who previously chose Western equipment have started to buy Russian equipment.
As followed by bne IntelliNews, the construction equipment and materials were seen as some of the industries most exposed to the sanctions for the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, while the construction sector became one of the main drivers of post-invasion recovery.
However, the market participants surveyed by Kommersant are still worried that the sales will decline in some segments as Chinese players expand to Russia. There has already been a decline in shipments in key segments such as loaders, rollers, telescopic handlers, pipe-laying cranes and truck cranes.
The analysts and market participants argue that it is important to continue supporting demand and also see the need to expand subsidies, including in the form of grants to develop the production of domestic components.
Some also point out that the fall in main segments is an alarming signal and may indicate that the construction industry is slowing down and that manufacturers of equipment from Asia are becoming more aggressive.
42 RUSSIA Country Report February 2023 www.intellinews.com