Page 55 - RusRPTFeb23

“In the fourth quarter, the value of goods and services exports started to decrease y/y, after the increase posted in the third quarter. This took place amid the deteriorating global price environment and tougher restrictions,” the CBR noted.
In the fourth quarter the current account surplus decreased to $31bn versus $47bn for the same period a year earlier.
“This happened mainly due to a reduction in exports due to a less favourable price environment on the world market and tightening restrictions,” the CBR said. “Decreasing pressure on exports was also exerted by weakening demand due to expectations of a slowdown in global economic growth.”
Despite the fall in the last quarter of last year, the CBR pointed out that the overall result for 2022 was good. The current account surplus hit an all-time high of $227bn almost double the already record high a year earlier of $122bn.
The record result was driven by the rise in the value of exports of goods and services, up 14% y/y to 78bn $y/y to an all-time high amid high global commodity prices.
The current account surplus in 2022 also increased due to the contraction of imports, which were down by 9% y/y to $34bn y/y.
The CBR highlighted that the oil price cap scheme introduced on December 5 was a major factor in the dynamics of the balance of payments after exports and the price of oil plunged in December, causing the federal budget to end the year with a budget deficit of 2.3% of GDP for 2022.
The value of exports of goods and services decreased by 15% y/y in the fourth quarter compared to a 4% y/y in the third quarter.
“This is due to the deterioration in the dynamics of world energy prices and the weakening of demand due to fears of a recession in the global economy,” the CBR said.
Brent oil price growth slowed to 11% y/y in 4Q22 compared to 36% y/y gain in the third quarter and a 64% y/y gain in the second quarter of the year.
“The situation with Russian oil was even more unfavourable. The price of Urals fell by 20% Y/y to $63/bbl on average in 4Q22 compared to A 4% y/y gain in 3Q22. At the same time in 4Q22 the Urals discount to Brent widened to 29%.
“Moreover, in the fourth quarter, the growth of world prices for gas and coal slowed down, while prices for many metals decreased. In addition, the embargo and the EU price ceiling on Russian oil limited the physical volume of exports. The EU ban on the import of coal, a number of iron and steel products from Russia, as well as other restrictions, continued to constrain exports,” the CBR said.
Oil
55 RUSSIA Country Report February 2023 www.intellinews.com