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minister after he served as speaker since September 2015, following the assassination of the republic’s leader Alexander Zakharchenko in August. In response, the Ukrainian foreign ministry asked Western leaders to intensify sanctions against the Russian government for allowing the vote to occur. Former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, who represents Ukraine at the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk, said the same day that setting elections was a serious step that violates the Minsk Accords and threatens the peace talks. The next day, EU spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic issued an official statement condemning the elections as violating the spirit and letter of the Minsk Accords.
MPs with the Poroshenko Bloc and the Fatherland party, led by leading presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko, engaged in an argument during the Sept. 6 session over whose leader has closer ties to Russia. First Vice Speaker Iryna Gerashchenko pointed out from the tribune that Andriy Portnov, appointed as news director of the NewsOne television network with links to the Kremlin, was a member of Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party not long ago. To which Fatherland Faction Head Serhiy Sobolev responded that President Poroshenko was serving in the cabinet of Russian-aligned former PM Mykola Azarov when Tymoshenko was illegally imprisoned in 2011. “When you recall this, recall where your leader was when the whole country was warring with Yanukovych. He sat in Azarov’s cabinet,” he said in response. He alleged that Poroshenko was Gerashchenko’s patron, prompting her to respond that Sobolev’s patron could be Putin. Poroshenko Bloc MPs then demanded an apology from Tymoshenko for Sobolev’s comments.
The parliaments of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, propped up by Russia, voted on September 7 to set elections for parliament and prime minister for November 11 , news reports said. The Donetsk parliament also elected Denis Pushilin as its new prime minister after he served as speaker since September 2015. In response, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry asked Western leaders to intensify sanctions against the Russian government for allowing the vote to occur. Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, who represents Ukraine at the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk, said the same day setting elections was a serious step that violates the Minsk Accords and threatens the peace talks. The next day, EU Spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic issued an official statement condemning the elections as violating the spirit and letter of the Minsk Accords. Setting elections for November 11 could not have happened without the approval of Russian President Putin, who has been in intense negotiations with Western leaders on the possibility of introducing UN peacekeepers in war-torn Donbas. So at minimum, Putin is raising the ante in his talks. He also could use the organization of elections to include them as part of a legitimate fulfilment of the Minsk Accords. We put the likelihood of Putin agreeing to a UN peacekeeping, in good faith, at 50%, given that he doesn’t have overwhelming geopolitical gains (as compared to losses) from their fulfilment in the coming year. Some pundits argued that the assassination of Donetsk People’s Republic leader Aleksandr Zakharchenko put an end to peacekeeping possibilities, while others have argued that the killing would be used by Putin as a diplomatic opening to fulfill the Minsk Accords. We believe Putin is keeping all his options open but will have to reach a decision on peacekeepers no later than this month. At least a month of preparation is needed to give some minimal appearance of legitimacy to the Donbas elections (which are otherwise illegitimate). And holding the elections eliminates any hope for peacekeepers until 2020, at the earliest.
14 UKRAINE Country Report October 2018 www.intellinews.com