Page 12 - RusRPTAug22

The positive balance of foreign trade amounted to $158.4bn in 2021, an increase of 2.6 times year on year.
Moreover, the monthly figures of the Central Bank show that the surplus continues to grow: in June, assuming the preservation of current estimates, it doubled from $14.5bn to $28.2bn, Dmitry Polevoy, investment director of Loko-invest Investment Company, calculated.
Export growth in monetary terms (+22%) slowed down in the second quarter compared to the first (+69% y/y), which is dominated by oil exports but subject to fluctuations in the price of oil.
The balance of foreign trade in the second quarter increased due to a reduction in imports by 12% (versus a 22% increase in the first).
“The skyrocketing trade surplus is a reflection of how many factors are playing into Russia's hands, from high commodity prices to strong demand from many export partners. But at the same time, it is a symptom of an unhealthy economy, which is undermined by a collapse in imports,” Bloomberg quotes its economist Scott Johnson.
It is the soaring current account surplus that is behind the strengthening of the ruble, which seemed to be turning around in mid-July - but analysts were in no hurry to conclude that the trend was changing.
Without a significant drop in exports and a revival of domestic demand and / or an acceleration of capital outflow, the ruble in the coming months is unlikely to be able to confidently overcome the mark of 65 per dollar, but rather will consolidate in the range of 55-60, Dmitry Polevoy believes.
But with such indicators of the balance of payments, the ruble may still strengthen even with the restoration of imports to previous highs of $25-30bn per month, said Dmitry Tunev, chief analyst at Ingosstrakh Investments.
Unlike the budget and exporters, citizens (especially those who can transfer and spend money abroad) can benefit from a strong ruble. But, as practice has already shown, the state, suffering from the strengthening of the national currency, is quite capable of shifting losses onto citizens - for example, it was the high exchange rate of the ruble that was called one of the reasons for Gazprom to refuse record dividends in history.
2.3 Gazprom’s low EU gas exports explained: prices too high
Prices explain Russian gas export drop, jump. A persistent question is why Gazprom has not exported more gas to Europe this winter. The answer is
12 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com