Page 27 - RusRPTAug22

Putin warned that at the end of June one more unit might be sent for repair, and if the first turbine arrives by that time, “well, two will work. And if it doesn’t come, there will be one — it will be only 30mcmpd,” Putin said.
It is still unclear when the first turbine that was sent to Canada fro repairs in June will return to Russia. As of July 25, the unit was still in Lübeck, Germany, but it still has not been sent on to Russia as Gazprom is quibbling about the paperwork.
At first, Gazprom claimed that the turbine manufacturer Siemens did not submit the documents necessary for transportation, but on July 25 it said that the documents have arrived, but "do not remove the previously identified risks and raise additional questions." Siemens says that all the necessary documents have been submitted a week ago, but there are no documents for import to Russia, which Gazprom must submit and has not.
After Gazprom's announcement, gas prices in Europe spiked by 6% and are approaching $1,800 per thousand cubic meters.
Experts worry that an extra cold winter this year would only exacerbate the problems. And a combined cold European and Asian winter would make things even more difficult by drawing off LNG supplies to Asia which is heavily dependent on LNG for heating and power.
In addition to the reductions in gas flow through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany and northern Europe, Russia has already cut off gas flows to Poland, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Dutch firm Gasterra and Shell for its German contracts, after they all rejected the gas-for-rubles scheme introduced by presidential decree in May, although the combined volumes to these countries is relatively small share of total imports to Europe.
The expanding gas war is worrying European politicians as Russia increasingly uses its tools to pressure the west into making more sanctions concessions. The Istanbul grain deal signed on July 22 that will allow Ukraine to expand grain exports was immediately threatened by rocket attacks on the port the next day that sent wheat futures spiking. A key part of the deal was Russia insisted on, and got, concessions on sanctions on its own grain exports, a major earner for the budget. It looks like the Kremlin is squeezing gas supplies with the same goal in mind and gas supplies is a major lever for the Kremlin.
“If we don’t get the gas turbine, then we won’t get any more gas, and then we won’t be able to provide any support for Ukraine at all, because then we’ll be busy with popular uprisings,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in a TV interview this week.
27 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com