Page 19 - Uzbekistan rising bne IntelliNews special report

bne December 2021 Special Report: Uzbekistan Rising I 19
2020 that fell to a mere 1.7% before bouncing back this year, returning
to 6.9% in the first nine months
of this year compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU).
The main drivers of growth
include: increases in information
and communications (21.6%), manufacturing (14.2%), hospitality
and dining (17%), transportation and storage (16%) and wholesale and
retail trade (10.9%). The only sector that contracted was banks and finance (-0.9%) according to the official figures.
Retail and incomes
However, the population remains poor. GDP per capita for the first nine months of this year was UZS14.9mn ($1,402), up 4.9% year on year and up by a third from 2019, but still less than a sixth of Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita of $9,055.
Things are getting better as the catch- up unfolds. That is driving growing consumption and that in turn is a powerful stimulus for economic growth. Retail turnover reached UZS167,026bn ($15.6bn) in the first nine months of this year, reports investment bank Bluestone, up 9.8% on the same period a year earlier.
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) make up three quarters
of all the retail business and saw volumes increase by 6.9%, while large enterprises expanded by a little more, up 13.1% in the same
Uzbekistan boasts largely solid macro fundamentals, but high inflation and even higher expectations for more increases amongst the population remain the main headache.
Uzbekistan central bank focuses on inflation targeting, but rising prices remain
a problem
Ben Aris in Tashkent
"W
fundamentals are solid. Really all we have to do now is manage the economy to improve stability and promote growth,” Mirsaid Nosirov, an analyst at the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU), told bne IntelliNews during a trip to Tashkent.
The Uzbek economy was one of only two major economies in the world that didn't go into recession in 2020. It was hurt like everyone else in the pandemic. No one escaped the shock of a global pandemic. But thanks to the new market-oriented prudent management and the robust growth Uzbekistan has been enjoying since Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took over in 2016, the economy had enough momentum
to plough through the storm.
Uzbekistan has a lot going for it. The economy has been booming on the back of simply liberalising the rules over
the last five years. Locked up by the
e have no serious problems. The macroeconomic
former, and only other, president Islam Karimov, just opening the gates again has allowed companies to do business. All of the easy catch-up growth most countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) have enjoyed in the last three decades remains ahead for Uzbekistan.
Before the pandemic hit, GDP was rising by more than 6% a year. But in
Uzbekistan GDP growth y/y
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Source: Uzbekistan state statistics agency