Page 12 - GEORptAug22

Georgian GDP increased by 10.4% in 2021
tourism, with a strong recovery in the year through May.
According to the National Statistics Service of Georgia, which were published on March 21, in 2021, Georgia's real GDP grew by 10.4%.
Last year, GDP at current prices amounted to GEL60.2bn ($18.7bn), which is 22.3% higher than the corresponding figure for 2020. At the same time, in 2021, the percentage change in the GDP deflator was 10.8%.
According to the Statistics Service, growth was observed in the following sectors: arts, entertainment and leisure (43.1%); supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning (33.5%); accommodation activities and food delivery (29.8%); health and social activities (28.7%); transport and warehousing (27.6%); information and communication (23.9%); financial and insurance activities (23.5%); repair of cars and motorcycles (19.9%); mining industry (13.5%); real estate transactions (9.2%); processing industry (9%).
Decline was observed in the following sectors: construction (-21.8%); education (-2.3%); agriculture, forestry and fisheries (-1.4%); mandatory social security (-0.9%).
3.2 Macro outlook
World Bank changes forecasts for South Caucasus countries
EBRD expects 30% GDP contraction in Ukraine in 2022, lowers emerging Europe projections
The World Bank has changed its forecasts for South Caucasus countries in the June issue of "Global Economic Prospects". "The Georgian economy has shown resilience to the economic shock induced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine so far, with the growth forecast for 2022 upgraded to 5.5% from 2.5% forecast in March. The resilience is driven by the strength of the services sector, particularly in tourism, with a strong recovery in the year through May," the report says.
The bank also forecasts that Azerbaijan's economy will grow by 2.7% in 2022, 2.2% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. These numbers for Azerbaijan's economic growth are the same as in April. "Although higher global commodity prices should provide windfalls that help cushion activity in some economies like Azerbaijan [...], these benefits are likely to be limited. An important reason is supply constraints, with the oil sector already operating close to capacity in Azerbaijan [...]" the report said.
The World Bank also has revised its GDP growth forecast for Armenia for 2022 upwards - from 1.2% to 3.5% (against the 5.7% actually recorded in 2021).
A severe contraction now expected at 30% this year in war-torn Ukraine has dragged down the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's (EBRD) projection for growth across its area of operations in 2022 to just 1.1%.
The development bank has issued two new sets of projections since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, which has had a negative impact across most of the emerging Europe and southern and eastern Mediterranean (Semed) regions.
In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report issued on May 10, the EBRD has lowered its forecast for the region as a whole by 0.6 percentage points (pp) compared to its previous projections in March, and by 3.1pp compared to November 2021.
12 GEORGIA Country Report August 2022 www.intellinews.com