Page 48 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine October 2024

48 I Southeast Europe bne October 2024
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Montenegrin President Jakov Milatovic at the Western Balkans’ EU Ascent panel at Globsec in Prague. / Globsec
Enlargement fatigue and the Western Balkan security vacuum
wish all the best to Montenegro, but I do not believe that it will be part of the EU in 2028, and I do not believe that we will be a member in 2028, Vucic said.
"We all want to be part of the EU, but we are not sure what the situation will look like in the member countries. Ukraine and Moldova are gaining momentum, which is understandable, but at the same time there is public exhaustion within the EU regarding enlargement,” the Serbian president added.
North Macedonia’s President Stevo Pendarovski echoed these concerns, noting that his country, once seen
as a frontrunner for EU membership alongside Croatia, has fallen far behind. It is now 19 years since the country secured candidate status, but its progress has been blocked by bilateral disputes with its neighbours, first Greece and later Bulgaria.
Pendarovski pointed to the EU's lack of commitment as a significant factor in the region's stagnation. Over the last 11-12 years, no country from the Western Balkans has made significant progress toward EU accession, and this has caused public enthusiasm for the EU to plummet, he argued.
In North Macedonia, for example, less than 50% of the population now supports EU membership – a shockingly low number for a historically pro-European country.
By contrast, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama told a panel that Albanians “are European, we are stubbornly in love with Europe” – a sentiment that is backed up by surveys showing Albanians are along the most enthu-siastic in the region about joining the bloc. However, he warned that “the Western Balkans should not be taken for granted”.
With enthusiasm for enlargement faltering both in the EU and in parts of the Western Balkans, former Croatian president Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic warned of the potential for a dangerous political vacuum to emerge. The lack of momentum threatens to destabilise the region and open it up to foreign influence, particularly from Russia.
Clare Nuttall in Glasgow
Top politicians from the Western Balkans confronted the question of when countries from the region can realistically hope to join the European Union at the Globsec forum in Prague.
There are fears that the protracted accession process – albeit speeded up somewhat since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – will lead local populations to become increasingly disillusioned with the EU, and create room for Russia and other parties to expand their influence in the region.
In contrast to fellow politicians from the region, Montenegro’s President Jakov Milatovic was highly optimistic about his country’s accession prospects. He pointed out that Montenegro is in the final phase of its EU accession process and could become the 28th member state by 2028. Although ambitious, he argued that
this goal is realistic, citing Montenegro’s long-standing use of the euro, its Nato membership since 2017, and its alignment with EU foreign and security policy.
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Milatovic expressed hope that Monte- negro’s progress could serve as a catalyst for the entire Western Balkans region, stressing that regional cooperation and economic integration are key to securing the region’s future within the EU.
Still, even Milatovic acknowledged the slow accession progress – no country has joined the EU since Croatia in 2013 – saying that what “we thought would be a 400m race ended up being a marathon with hurdles.”
Speaking on the same panel as Milatovic, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic
was more sceptical, suggesting that no new EU members (even Monte-negro) would be admitted before 2030. Vucic acknowledged the desire of all Western Balkan countries to join the EU but warned that enlargement fatigue within the EU itself, compounded by the acceleration of Ukraine and Moldova’s accession, could slow the region’s progress even further.
"Everyone sees opportunities, a revival of the process, but I don't believe it. I