Page 53 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine October 2024

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“persistent provocations by Ukraine,” including alleged airspace violations by Ukrainian drones. Despite this, Belarus continues to offer itself as a neutral venue for peace talks.
In the last three years, the Union State deal, agreed in 1999 but never com- pleted, has updated key strategic docu- ments, including the Military Doctrine and the Information Security Concept. A new Union State Security Concept is under development and will be signed in 2025. However, a treaty on security guarantees between Minsk and Moscow is expected to be finalised by the end of this year. Belarusian Foreign Minister
Maksim Ryzhankou stated that this agreement will cover the use of nuclear and conventional weapons, providing Belarus with security assurances as the Union State braces for a possible escala- tion in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In the event of such an escalation, the possibility of a new invasion from Belar- usian territory looms, potentially involv- ing the Belarusian military and tactical nuclear weapons. Valfovich confirmed that Belarus is ready for the possible use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, with scenarios for their deployment practised in joint exercises with Russia.
Belarus has also confirmed that the Russian-Belarusian strategic exercises of the West Regional Force Grouping will take place in 2025. While specific dates have not been announced, past exercises suggest the active phase could occur in September, following the deployment of Russian troops to Belarus in the summer of 2025. There are indications that additional Russian forces could begin arriving as early as the end of 2024. Some analysts suggest the Zapod 2025 drills could follow the "Union Determination" model used
in early 2022, potentially serving as a pretext for launching a new invasion of Ukraine from Belarus.
Navalny’s team accuses Khordokovsky ally Leonid Nevzlin of orchestrating attack on Leonid Volkov
bne IntelliNews
The team of the killed Russian oppo- sition figure Alexei Navalny has accused Russian-Israeli billionaire Leonid Nevzlin of orchestrating an attack on Navalny's ally, Leonid Volkov.
On March 12, Volkov, former chief of staff to Navalny and chair of the Anti-Corrup- tion Foundation (FBK), was attacked out- side his residence in Lithuania with tear gas and a hammer. The Polish authorities arrested three individuals in connection with the incident, while Lithuanian offi- cials have suggested possible involvement by Russian special services. However, Navalny's team has claimed it has evi- dence implicating Nevzlin in the attack, as well as a number of other attacks on other Navalny allies, including FBK direc- tor Ivan Zhdanov and economist Maxim Mironov’s wife, Alexandra Petrashkova.
Nevzlin is the former co-owner of Yukos, an oil company that was also owned by famous Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodor- kovsky. Nevzlin left Russia for Israel in 2003, and set up a media empire in the
country, which included the takeover of Haaretz, Israel’s longest running news- paper currently in print. In May 2024, he renounced his Russian citizenship, famously calling the population “Rus- sian slave cattle.”
According to Navalny’s team, Nevzlin allegedly ordered Volkov’s kidnapping and beating. It is alleged that he then refused to pay the promised $250,000
after the attack, as Volkov had not been beaten up badly enough. This then led to a dispute, which eventually led to Naval- ny’s team being told about the attack.
Maria Pevchikh, head of FBK Interna- tional, reported that the Navalny team received an anonymous offer from someone who had details about the attack on Volkov. The offer came from a man named Andrey Matus, a middleman
On March 12, Volkov, former chief of staff to Navalny and chair of the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), was attacked outside his residence in Lithuania with tear gas and a hammer. / Ivan Zhdanov
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