Page 59 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine October 2024

bne October 2024 EuraEusraisaia I 59
But beyond that, nestled between east and west, with significant supplies
of raw materials, oil and gas and rare minerals, Central Asia has become strategically important the rest of the world in a way that it has not enjoyed since the times of the Great Game.
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many analysts believed that the 'Stans would be forced to choose sides or face sanctions. That didn't happen. What has emerged is a delicate multivector balancing act. In March 2022, then Uzbek foreign minister Abdulaziz Kamilov became the first Central Asian official who called for
an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, affirmed the sovereignty of that country, and refused to recognise Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics.
The 'Stans have refused to recognise Russia’s attack on Ukraine as legitimate. Face to face with Putin at St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in 2022, Kazakhstan's President Kassym- Jomart Tokayev refused to recognise Russia’s claim that the breakaway republics in Donbas were independent. But at the same time the 'Stans abstained in the UN votes to condemn Russia in 2022 and have rebuffed Western pressure to halt the sanctions- busting trade they have facilitated since.
Wooed by Washington, Moscow and Beijing in an increasingly fractured world, the five ‘Stans have clubbed together into the so-called C5 format to better leverage their stance in the negotiations.
“The war in Ukraine and Taliban control of Afghanistan did not isolate Central Asia; on the contrary, these events revitalised the region’s relationships with major global powers. The region’s leaders, acting as unified “C5” bloc, have visited Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Moscow, New York and Xi’an. In turn, international leaders have made
an unprecedented number of visits to the region. Russia’s Putin visited all five Central Asian states in 2022 alone, China’s Xi Jinping has toured the region twice since February 2022, Emmanuel Macron became France’s
second president to visit Central Asia, and Germany’s Olaf Scholz is planning a trip to the region in September 2024,” Jennifer B. Murtazashvili wrote in a paper for Carnegie entitled Nobody’s Backyard: A Confident Central Asia.
Ironically, the East-West conflict and the pressure being applied to Central Asia to choose sides has led to an improvement in the region’s relations with both
East and West precisely because its countries’ support of both sides is only partial, and even more importantly amongst themselves. The ‘Stans have been prone to bicker in internecine rivalries for most of the time since their independence.
“Central Asian states have successfully deepened ties with international partners who are often at odds with one another. The region has avoided making binary choices and instead fostered an environment where even conflicting
“Rather than cowering in fear and calling on larger powers to save them, Central Asian nations are exuding an independent confidence. Far from being passive or helpless players, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are demonstrating
that they are not pawns in a larger geopolitical game, but important actors who understand the leverage they have over larger goliaths. They are boldly and creatively tackling some of the world’s most complex geopolitical tasks.”
Business is booming
The trade with all of the countries
of Central Asia and the Caucasus is booming thanks to the war. Cut off from direct imports of key inputs from Europe, much of that trade has simply been redirected via Central Asia, which has no qualms about dealing with banned goods. The trade has created
a huge windfall for the 'Stans, money they are pumping into their economic
“What has emerged is a delicate multivector balancing act”
states can coexist. They have turned crises into opportunities for positive- sum cooperation,” Murtazashvili said.
The international brouhaha has engendered an era of unprecedented co-operation amongst the normally fissiparous states. Indeed, the rivalries between the warring factions of East and West have liberated the ‘Stans from the pressures that used to be exerted by the great powers that surround them.
“Observers predicted that these events would have severe effects on Central Asia’s stability or destabilise long-standing regimes in the region. Although none of the catastrophic scenarios materialised, many still perceive Central Asia as a fragile region. What most analysis misses is the increased agency that countries in the region have over their own fates. The region is no longer a backdrop for the new Great Game, nor is it anyone’s backyard,” Murtazashvili said.
development. Kazakhstan’s imports of office machinery from Europe tripled to almost $1bn from 2021 to 2023, probably partly due to a surge of new offices and factories being set up to serve Russia’s burgeoning demand.
Exports from the European Union to the 'Stans increased by €46bn in 2023, up 50% from 2021. That was equivalent to three-quarters of the drop in Europe’s exports to Russia from 2021 to2023.
Last year, agricultural products flowing from Europe into Kazakhstan doubled from 2021 to 2023, official numbers show. Machinery exports to Kazakhstan from the EU doubled from 2021 to 2022, and then rose another 23% in 2023 to reach €6.4bn. Kazakhstan’s tech industry of only 50 companies has seen exports to Russia rise from $40m in 2021 to $298m in 2023. Electronic imports from Europe also increased from €250m to €709m in the same period, The Economist reports.
www.bne.eu