Page 72 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine October 2024

72 Opinion
bne October 2024
It has also been quietly expanding its security cooperation, conducting joint military exercises and offering training programmes.
For Central Asian countries, this renewed attention from regional powers presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, it offers the prospect of increased investment, improved connectivity, and a chance to reduce dependence on Russia and China. On the other, it risks pulling these nations into new geopolitical competitions. Each of the contenders faces its own hurdles. Turkey's ambitions are constrained by geography and its complex relationships in the Caucasus. Iran's efforts are hampered by international sanctions and regional suspicions about its intentions. India, while offering an attractive partnership, struggles with limited resources and the logistical challenges of reaching Central Asia. Moreover, Russia and China remain significant players in the region. Moscow's security guarantees and China's economic heft cannot be easily displaced, regardless of their current preoccupations elsewhere.
Looking ahead
As this new chapter of the Great Game unfolds, several key questions emerge. Can Turkey overcome the geographical
War in Ukraine – where is the Western leadership?
Timothy Ash, Senior Sovereign Strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London
Over two and a half years now into Putin’s full scale war on Ukraine and I think the West should be asking itself where it has gone wrong. Why has the West, with a combined GDP of $60 trillion, thirty times that of Russia, been unable to give Ukraine the support needs to bring it a speedy victory? And sure, some will argue that the fact that Russia has not beaten Ukraine is in itself a victory, but the reality is that Ukraine’s continued survival against overwhelming odds owes more to the bravery of Ukrainians than the support it has received from the West.
At the core of the West’s failings is a fundamental lack of leadership, both within Europe, but I think also and more importantly from the US, as the supposed leader of the free world. The US here talks of US exceptionalism – well the war in Ukraine was the ultimate test of the US place as the leader of the West.
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and political obstacles to realise its Middle Corridor vision? Will Iran's combination of cultural ties, geographic proximity, and military cooperation prove compelling to Central Asian leaders? Can India translate its soft power and democratic credentials into tangible influence? The answers to these questions will shape not just the future of Central Asia, but also the broader balance of power across Eurasia. As Turkey, Iran, and India jockey for position, Central Asian nations find themselves with more options – and more complex choices – than they have had in decades.
What is clear is that Central Asia, long considered a
backwater in global affairs, is again becoming a focal point of international competition. The region's vast natural resources, strategic location, and untapped economic potential make it an increasingly important piece on the global chessboard.
For policymakers in Ankara, Tehran and New Delhi, success in Central Asia could be transformative, offering new
trade routes, energy supplies, and strategic depth. For the Central Asian states themselves, skilful navigation of these competing interests could lead to a new era of prosperity and autonomy.
It has been more than two years, but despite the fact that the West dwarfs the Russian economy, it has been unable to aid Ukraine to a victory in the war. What's the problem? Where is the Western leadership? / bne IntelliNews
There has been a continuous timidity in the Western approach when it comes Putin’s war on Ukraine, an over-appreciation of the threats and demands of Russia, and I think an under-appreciation of the importance of ensuring Putin does not win this war.
One can see the failures very early on from the Biden administration, and particularly from its national security leadership in continuously failing to read Putin. From the outset the Biden administration saw China as the biggest global threat to the US and the international order, mistakenly seeing Russia as a declining second or third rate power. I think here they failed to understand that the Putin regime saw itself as at war with the West, as Lavrov et al put it, of a battle between ideologies, between “western liberal market democracy” and “sovereign democracy” – the latter of which is a fancy term for
a “hands off autocrats” deal with the West.