Page 76 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine October 2024

76 I New Europe in Numbers bne October 2024
Romania: Retail Sales Index [2021=100; seasonally, workday adjusted]
Sales of non-food goods in Romania soar to new record in July
The volume of retail sales in Romania rose by 8.1% y/y in July slightly slower compared to the 9.8% y/y advance in Q2, dragged down by sluggish sales of car fuels (0.6% y/y) but substantially driven by the sales of non-food goods (14.5% y/y) that reached a new record when expressed in seasonally adjusted terms.
Private consumption in Romania remains robust, fueled by the significant advance in net wages (by 6.5-8.2% y/y over the past three quarters). The pass-through ratio from retail sales to GDP growth is, however, modest due to the reliance on imported consumer goods in a multitude of segments.
Russia’s central bank surprises market with 100bp rate hike to 19%
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) surprised the market with a surprise 100bp hike on September 13 taking the prime interest rate to 19%.
The decision comes as inflation at 9.1% is thought to have peaked and the overheated economy is cooling after the CBR teamed up with the government to use non-monetary policy methods to reduce the inflationary pressures.
Hungary's automotive industry extends decline as export markets struggle
Output of Hungary's industrial sector fell 1.3% y/y in July and by 6.4% when adjusted for the number of workdays, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) confirmed in a detailed release of data on September 13.
Domestic industrial output has essentially stagnated or slightly declined since mid-2022. Short-term production prospects remain bleak, with economic indicators across Europe showing only faint signs of recovery, analysts said. The 6.4% decline was the steepest drop among EU members, but two extra days in the base period explain the big gap in the two figures
Russian population unhappiest it has been in a decade
Eight out of ten (78%) of Russians consider themselves to be relatively happy, according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM). However, the overall happiness index has dropped to its lowest point since November 2014, TASS reported on September 16.
The data shows a noticeable shift in sentiment over the past three months. “The share of those who consider themselves absolutely happy has decreased to 32%, while those who describe themselves as rather unhappy has increased to 12%,” the pollster added.
Russia monetary policy rate vs CPI inflation y/y
Source: CBR
Hungary industrial production y/y
Source: Hungary state statistics agency
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