Page 20 - UKRRptJan22

3.2 Macro outlook
The IMF updated its estimates for GDP and inflation in Ukraine in 2023 in December.
In 2023, Ukraine's economy may grow by approximately 1%, and inflation and the state budget deficit will decrease, according to a memorandum within the framework of the IMF's new monitoring program.
It is noted that after falling by almost a third in 2022, real GDP may slightly increase by about 1% in 2023, provided that there is a gradual revival of activity in areas that are not in the zone of active hostilities.
Also, the continuation of the work of the grain corridor is important, and the long-term impact in the first quarter of damage to the energy infrastructure will explain the absence of further escalation. Economic activity is also expected to rise in the coming quarters, mainly through government spending.
At the same time, the recovery in exports will be only gradual, and consumption growth will remain weak. As a result, annualised inflation is expected to decrease gradually from 30% at the end of 2022 to around 22.5% at the end of 2023.
20 UKRAINE Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com