Page 40 - UKRRptJan22

7.0 FX
Data Google sheets import from here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bMH5wBwqnIm_vgMxUi3yYkbBSPHhpqXBSJoylo7Fcko/edit#gid=1439190 079
Ukraine FX
Dec 2021
Jan 2022
Feb 2022
Mar 2022
Apr 2022
May 2022
Jun 2022
Jul 2022
Aug 2022
Sept 2022
Oct 2022
Nov 2022
Dec 2022
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
30.8
31.92
33.72
32.67
32.04
31.40
31.20
30.41
37.36
35.26
36.90
37.69
39.06
Currency (units per USD) (average)
27.2
28.42
30.07
29.50
29.63
29.69
29.54
31.52
36.92
36.71
36.21
36.85
36.86
source: NBU
The IMF will allow the National Bank of Ukraine to print UAH 50bn if needed. In case of a shortage of external financing at the beginning of 2023, the NBU can buy up to UAH 50bn of domestic state loan bonds, according to the IMF's materials on its monitoring program with Ukraine. In particular, it is noted that in the case of a temporary deficit of external financing and on the condition that the supply of new government bonds exceeds UAH 83.22bn, the National Bank can directly buy government bonds for the amount of the deficit, but not more than UAH 50bn ($1.36bn). Taking into account payments to the National Bank under previously issued bonds, this will mean monetary financing of the budget up to UAH 42.4bn.
Ukraine’s economy is not stable. Inflation has been accelerating thanks to the monetary printing to fund the budget. Economist Adam Tooze predicts that the hryvnia will be forced to devalue again in 2023 unless Ukraine gets more funding from its international partners. The parallel, cash exchange rate, is already running significantly higher than the official exchange rate.
40 UKRAINE Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com