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Russia in September before talks start. Bankova is insisting that Russia withdraw to at least the 2014 borders, and would prefer Russia retreat to the 1991 borders, before it will contemplate peace negotiations.
Kyiv has called for a UN sponsored peace summit in February, but this will likely end simply as a forum for the international community to express its outrage over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but won’t produce any concrete results.
Despite the death toll, Ukrainians remain almost universally committed to continuing the war until they win. Ukraine has some million people in uniform -- many women have also volunteer, and for frontline duty too —
with several hundred thousand in active service in the fight. They face around 400,000 Russians serving in the Russian army, but with a new mobilisation being prepared – probably for around April when the weather improves – this war could last for years.
Ukraine has lost an estimated 20% of its territory. At least 22% of Ukrainian farmland is under Russian control. These areas are a large part of the territory identified in the Minsk II agreement that were to be governed as autonomous districts. As of today, it appears Russia has come close to achieving some of its minimalist goals, including capturing the greater Donbas region. If Russia completes this objective then that would represent an obvious point for Putin to declare victory and for the war to stop. In the near term that is the most likely scenario that could bring the fighting to an end.
In the meantime, Ukraine’s economy is suffering massive damage. The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine was forced to return to its original forecast of a 32-33.5% fall in real gross domestic product this year due to
Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia
Svyrydenko, Minister of Economy, said at a briefing on December 2. But following
the barrage targeting the energy infrastructure that started in October, the
contraction is likely to be much more severe.
From the initial estimates of $100bn of physical damage done by Russia over the summer, the estimates rose to $400bn by autumn and are likely to almost double again by the end of the year, up to $700bn. Missile strikes have destroyed 50% of Ukraine’s energy facilities.
World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia Anna Bjerde told Austrian newspaper Die Press that the cost of rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure damaged or destroyed by Russia since February 24 will cost from €500bn to €600bn ($527bn to $632bn).
"According to our estimates, which have been verified by the World Bank, the amount of damage caused to the Ukrainian economy as of June 1 is $350bn. By the end of the year, this amount will obviously double. We understand this, as the destruction continues," Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said at the economic forum in Paris in December.
6 UKRAINE Country Report January 2023 www.intellinews.com