Page 14 - TURKRptFeb20

Given the deteriorating global outlook for 2020, it is expected that export growth will remain limited. Even a contraction may be seen . The EU remains the biggest export market for Turkey, buying around one-half of its exports. Germany is the top buyer within Europe.
The government has targeted 5% growth for Turkey in 2020 and no current account deficit .
Under the current economic structure, this is not a possible outcome . Growth of 5% may well be announced, but at the same time the official treatment of the balance of payments numbers should be placed squarely under the microscope.
Under the present conditions, the current account must inevitably deteriorate in 2020 .
You can fairly anticipate that the financing of the resultant deficit will be conducted through Erdogan’s swap deals, unidentified inflows through the net errors and omissions account and the real sector’s short-term trade credits .
The government and corporates have, meanwhile, retained their ability to raise funds via eurobond sales. This situation is expected to endure in 2020 .
Turkish banks remained net debt payers across 2019 and their willingness to increase their external borrowing exposure in the present economic environment is expected to remain weak in 2020 .
Capital inflows are also expected to remain weak due to worsened market conditions on the Borsa Istanbul and on the government bond markets.
FDI inflows remained weak in 2019 and a radical change is not visible on the 2020 horizon .
14 TURKEY Country Report OUTLOOK 2020 www.intellinews.com