Page 2 - TURKRptFeb20

Table of contents
1.0 Executive summary
2.0 Politics
2.1 Snap elections are looking very likely
2.2 Between Putin and Trump...
2.3 Official growth to come at about 5%, so why are so many Turks suicidal?
2.4 Official inflation to remain in single-digits, monetary easing to deepen, Teflon lira’s destiny to be watched...
2.5 Current account to deteriorate
2.6 Banking watchdog threatens legal action over report it ordered firing of bankers
2.7 Purge of mayors for first time extended to representative of main opposition
2.8 Turkey ‘must improve efforts made against money laundering and terrorism financing or risk going on FATF grey list’
2.9 Banking watchdog limits banks’ forex transactions during another rough day for lira
2.10 Economic crash means three-quarters of Turks now ‘prefer supermarket private labels’ 2.11 Business and consumer confidence surveys
2.12 Politics - shorts
3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
4.0 Real Economy
4.1 Industrial production 4.2 Inflation
4.2.1 CPI dynamics
4.2.2 PPI dynamics
4.3 Industrial sectors and trade
4.3.1 PMI Production dynamics 4.4 Labour and income
4.4.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics 4.4.2 Income dynamics
4.4.3 Retail sector dynamics
5.0 External Sector & Trade
5.1 External sector overview
5.2 Balance of payments, current account
5.2.1 Import/export dynamics 5.2.2 Current account dynamics 5.2.3 Gross intl reserves
5.3 FDI
5.4 External Debt
6.0 Public Sector
6.1 Budget
6.1.1 Budget dynamics - specific issues 6.1.2 Budget dynamics - privatization
6.2 Debt
7.0 FX
8.0 Financial & capital markets
2 TURKEY Country Report OUTLOOK 2020
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